March 26, 2019

Pro14 Predictions for Round 19

Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 11.20 9.80 1.40
Munster 9.61 8.08 1.50
Glasgow Warriors 8.92 8.55 0.40
Connacht 3.65 0.01 3.60
Scarlets 2.96 6.39 -3.40
Cardiff Blues 1.35 0.24 1.10
Ulster 1.24 2.07 -0.80
Edinburgh 0.53 -0.64 1.20
Ospreys -0.92 -0.86 -0.10
Treviso -1.12 -5.19 4.10
Cheetahs -2.04 -0.83 -1.20
Dragons -9.77 -8.59 -1.20
Southern Kings -10.49 -7.91 -2.60
Zebre -14.58 -10.57 -4.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 126 matches played, 100 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 79.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cardiff Blues vs. Scarlets Mar 23 41 – 17 1.20 TRUE
2 Connacht vs. Treviso Mar 23 29 – 14 8.20 TRUE
3 Edinburgh vs. Leinster Mar 23 28 – 11 -8.00 FALSE
4 Glasgow Warriors vs. Cheetahs Mar 23 35 – 17 15.00 TRUE
5 Munster vs. Zebre Mar 23 31 – 12 29.60 TRUE
6 Ospreys vs. Dragons Mar 23 29 – 20 14.20 TRUE
7 Ulster vs. Southern Kings Mar 23 33 – 19 16.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cheetahs vs. Ospreys Apr 06 Cheetahs 3.40
2 Glasgow Warriors vs. Ulster Apr 06 Glasgow Warriors 12.20
3 Leinster vs. Treviso Apr 06 Leinster 16.80
4 Munster vs. Cardiff Blues Apr 06 Munster 12.80
5 Scarlets vs. Edinburgh Apr 06 Scarlets 6.90
6 Southern Kings vs. Dragons Apr 06 Southern Kings 3.80
7 Zebre vs. Connacht Apr 06 Connacht -13.70

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »