March 26, 2019

NRL Predictions for Round 3

Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 7.27 8.72 -1.40
Storm 7.11 6.03 1.10
Rabbitohs 6.07 3.89 2.20
Broncos 3.38 2.63 0.80
Sharks 3.07 3.90 -0.80
Raiders 2.30 1.81 0.50
Cowboys -0.23 0.15 -0.40
Warriors -0.34 -0.27 -0.10
Panthers -0.49 0.93 -1.40
Dragons -1.50 0.06 -1.60
Wests Tigers -2.69 -5.57 2.90
Eels -3.14 -6.17 3.00
Bulldogs -4.42 -0.61 -3.80
Titans -4.92 -3.36 -1.60
Sea Eagles -6.18 -5.61 -0.60
Knights -7.28 -8.51 1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 11 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Rabbitohs Mar 21 18 – 34 -2.70 TRUE
2 Raiders vs. Storm Mar 22 10 – 22 -0.20 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Cowboys Mar 22 29 – 10 4.60 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Titans Mar 23 20 – 6 10.50 TRUE
5 Knights vs. Panthers Mar 23 14 – 16 -4.10 TRUE
6 Sea Eagles vs. Roosters Mar 23 18 – 26 -10.80 TRUE
7 Bulldogs vs. Eels Mar 24 16 – 36 5.30 FALSE
8 Wests Tigers vs. Warriors Mar 24 34 – 6 -2.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Dragons Mar 28 Broncos 7.90
2 Raiders vs. Knights Mar 29 Raiders 12.60
3 Eels vs. Roosters Mar 29 Roosters -7.40
4 Sea Eagles vs. Warriors Mar 30 Warriors -1.30
5 Cowboys vs. Sharks Mar 30 Sharks -0.30
6 Panthers vs. Storm Mar 30 Storm -4.60
7 Wests Tigers vs. Bulldogs Mar 31 Wests Tigers 4.70
8 Rabbitohs vs. Titans Mar 31 Rabbitohs 14.00

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar
    Daniel OToole

    Just wanted to say thanks for all your hard work. And I’m really enjoying the new league additions👌🏼

    6 years ago