Super Rugby Predictions for Round 6
Team Ratings for Round 6
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crusaders | 17.13 | 17.67 | -0.50 |
| Hurricanes | 9.41 | 9.43 | -0.00 |
| Lions | 5.21 | 8.28 | -3.10 |
| Highlanders | 3.73 | 4.01 | -0.30 |
| Chiefs | 2.44 | 8.56 | -6.10 |
| Bulls | 1.01 | -3.79 | 4.80 |
| Waratahs | 1.01 | 2.00 | -1.00 |
| Sharks | 0.37 | 0.45 | -0.10 |
| Brumbies | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Stormers | 0.21 | -0.39 | 0.60 |
| Jaguares | -1.45 | -0.26 | -1.20 |
| Blues | -3.37 | -3.42 | 0.10 |
| Rebels | -4.47 | -7.26 | 2.80 |
| Reds | -6.80 | -8.19 | 1.40 |
| Sunwolves | -13.67 | -16.08 | 2.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 33 matches played, 23 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chiefs vs. Hurricanes | Mar 15 | 23 – 23 | -4.00 | FALSE |
| 2 | Brumbies vs. Waratahs | Mar 15 | 19 – 13 | 2.30 | TRUE |
| 3 | Stormers vs. Jaguares | Mar 15 | 35 – 8 | 2.70 | TRUE |
| 4 | Sunwolves vs. Reds | Mar 16 | 31 – 34 | -2.90 | TRUE |
| 5 | Lions vs. Rebels | Mar 16 | 36 – 33 | 15.10 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 6
Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blues vs. Highlanders | Mar 22 | Highlanders | -3.60 |
| 2 | Hurricanes vs. Stormers | Mar 23 | Hurricanes | 13.20 |
| 3 | Waratahs vs. Crusaders | Mar 23 | Crusaders | -12.10 |
| 4 | Sunwolves vs. Lions | Mar 23 | Lions | -14.90 |
| 5 | Bulls vs. Chiefs | Mar 23 | Bulls | 2.60 |
| 6 | Sharks vs. Rebels | Mar 23 | Sharks | 8.80 |
| 7 | Reds vs. Brumbies | Mar 24 | Brumbies | -3.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Does the 0-0 affect your model? Might make more sense as an NA instead given the tragedy.
6 years ago
Yes, you are quite correct. Meant a difference of 0.60 in ratings of Crusaders (down) and Highlanders (up). Also changed my percentage of correctly called games to 69.7% (from 67.6%). Updated now.
Thanks
6 years ago