Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 17
Team Ratings for Round 17
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saracens | 10.74 | 11.19 | -0.50 |
| Exeter Chiefs | 9.88 | 11.13 | -1.30 |
| Gloucester Rugby | 4.00 | 1.23 | 2.80 |
| Northampton Saints | 3.51 | 3.42 | 0.10 |
| Bath Rugby | 2.99 | 3.11 | -0.10 |
| Wasps | 2.90 | 8.30 | -5.40 |
| Harlequins | 2.36 | 2.05 | 0.30 |
| Sale Sharks | 1.89 | -0.81 | 2.70 |
| Leicester Tigers | 1.51 | 6.26 | -4.70 |
| Bristol | -2.53 | -5.60 | 3.10 |
| Worcester Warriors | -2.54 | -5.18 | 2.60 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -3.13 | -3.51 | 0.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 96 matches played, 66 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bath Rugby vs. Saracens | Mar 09 | 18 – 9 | -3.40 | FALSE |
| 2 | Harlequins vs. Gloucester Rugby | Mar 09 | 7 – 29 | 6.10 | FALSE |
| 3 | Northampton Saints vs. Bristol | Mar 09 | 24 – 26 | 12.90 | FALSE |
| 4 | Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers | Mar 09 | 32 – 5 | 4.00 | TRUE |
| 5 | Wasps vs. Newcastle Falcons | Mar 09 | 19 – 20 | 12.80 | FALSE |
| 6 | Worcester Warriors vs. Exeter Chiefs | Mar 09 | 30 – 33 | -7.80 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 17
Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bristol vs. Worcester Warriors | Mar 23 | Bristol | 5.50 |
| 2 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Bath Rugby | Mar 23 | Exeter Chiefs | 12.40 |
| 3 | Gloucester Rugby vs. Wasps | Mar 23 | Gloucester Rugby | 6.60 |
| 4 | Leicester Tigers vs. Northampton Saints | Mar 23 | Leicester Tigers | 3.50 |
| 5 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Sale Sharks | Mar 23 | Newcastle Falcons | 0.50 |
| 6 | Saracens vs. Harlequins | Mar 23 | Saracens | 13.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »