Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 16
Team Ratings for Round 16
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saracens | 11.33 | 11.19 | 0.10 |
| Exeter Chiefs | 10.31 | 11.13 | -0.80 |
| Northampton Saints | 4.19 | 3.42 | 0.80 |
| Wasps | 3.55 | 8.30 | -4.70 |
| Harlequins | 3.46 | 2.05 | 1.40 |
| Gloucester Rugby | 2.90 | 1.23 | 1.70 |
| Leicester Tigers | 2.46 | 6.26 | -3.80 |
| Bath Rugby | 2.39 | 3.11 | -0.70 |
| Sale Sharks | 0.95 | -0.81 | 1.80 |
| Worcester Warriors | -2.97 | -5.18 | 2.20 |
| Bristol | -3.21 | -5.60 | 2.40 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -3.77 | -3.51 | -0.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 90 matches played, 64 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bath Rugby vs. Harlequins | Mar 02 | 29 – 31 | 5.20 | FALSE |
| 2 | Bristol vs. Gloucester Rugby | Mar 02 | 28 – 24 | -1.60 | FALSE |
| 3 | Leicester Tigers vs. Wasps | Mar 02 | 19 – 14 | 4.30 | TRUE |
| 4 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Worcester Warriors | Mar 02 | 17 – 6 | 3.90 | TRUE |
| 5 | Sale Sharks vs. Exeter Chiefs | Mar 02 | 14 – 20 | -3.40 | TRUE |
| 6 | Saracens vs. Northampton Saints | Mar 02 | 36 – 17 | 11.90 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 16
Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bath Rugby vs. Saracens | Mar 09 | Saracens | -3.40 |
| 2 | Harlequins vs. Gloucester Rugby | Mar 09 | Harlequins | 6.10 |
| 3 | Northampton Saints vs. Bristol | Mar 09 | Northampton Saints | 12.90 |
| 4 | Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers | Mar 09 | Sale Sharks | 4.00 |
| 5 | Wasps vs. Newcastle Falcons | Mar 09 | Wasps | 12.80 |
| 6 | Worcester Warriors vs. Exeter Chiefs | Mar 09 | Exeter Chiefs | -7.80 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »