Pro14 Predictions for Round 18
Team Ratings for Round 18
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leinster | 12.09 | 9.80 | 2.30 |
| Munster | 10.08 | 8.08 | 2.00 |
| Glasgow Warriors | 8.68 | 8.55 | 0.10 |
| Scarlets | 3.80 | 6.39 | -2.60 |
| Connacht | 3.10 | 0.01 | 3.10 |
| Ulster | 1.46 | 2.07 | -0.60 |
| Cardiff Blues | 0.52 | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| Edinburgh | -0.37 | -0.64 | 0.30 |
| Ospreys | -0.50 | -0.86 | 0.40 |
| Treviso | -0.57 | -5.19 | 4.60 |
| Cheetahs | -1.80 | -0.83 | -1.00 |
| Dragons | -10.19 | -8.59 | -1.60 |
| Southern Kings | -10.70 | -7.91 | -2.80 |
| Zebre | -15.06 | -10.57 | -4.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 119 matches played, 94 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 79%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leinster vs. Cheetahs | Mar 02 | 19 – 7 | 19.60 | TRUE |
| 2 | Connacht vs. Ospreys | Mar 03 | 46 – 5 | 5.80 | TRUE |
| 3 | Treviso vs. Edinburgh | Mar 03 | 18 – 10 | 3.60 | TRUE |
| 4 | Scarlets vs. Munster | Mar 03 | 10 – 6 | -2.90 | FALSE |
| 5 | Zebre vs. Glasgow Warriors | Mar 03 | 10 – 42 | -18.10 | TRUE |
| 6 | Cardiff Blues vs. Southern Kings | Mar 03 | 26 – 19 | 16.60 | TRUE |
| 7 | Dragons vs. Ulster | Mar 04 | 15 – 28 | -6.00 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 18
Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cardiff Blues vs. Scarlets | Mar 23 | Cardiff Blues | 1.20 |
| 2 | Connacht vs. Treviso | Mar 23 | Connacht | 8.20 |
| 3 | Edinburgh vs. Leinster | Mar 23 | Leinster | -8.00 |
| 4 | Glasgow Warriors vs. Cheetahs | Mar 23 | Glasgow Warriors | 15.00 |
| 5 | Munster vs. Zebre | Mar 23 | Munster | 29.60 |
| 6 | Ospreys vs. Dragons | Mar 23 | Ospreys | 14.20 |
| 7 | Ulster vs. Southern Kings | Mar 23 | Ulster | 16.70 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »