Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 14
Team Ratings for Round 14
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saracens | 11.41 | 11.19 | 0.20 |
| Exeter Chiefs | 10.26 | 11.13 | -0.90 |
| Northampton Saints | 4.98 | 3.42 | 1.60 |
| Wasps | 4.31 | 8.30 | -4.00 |
| Harlequins | 3.31 | 2.05 | 1.30 |
| Gloucester Rugby | 2.94 | 1.23 | 1.70 |
| Leicester Tigers | 2.78 | 6.26 | -3.50 |
| Bath Rugby | 2.40 | 3.11 | -0.70 |
| Sale Sharks | 0.48 | -0.81 | 1.30 |
| Worcester Warriors | -2.96 | -5.18 | 2.20 |
| Bristol | -3.97 | -5.60 | 1.60 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -4.36 | -3.51 | -0.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 78 matches played, 57 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bath Rugby vs. Newcastle Falcons | Feb 16 | 30 – 13 | 11.20 | TRUE |
| 2 | Bristol vs. Wasps | Feb 16 | 22 – 29 | -1.90 | TRUE |
| 3 | Gloucester Rugby vs. Exeter Chiefs | Feb 16 | 24 – 17 | -2.80 | FALSE |
| 4 | Harlequins vs. Worcester Warriors | Feb 16 | 47 – 33 | 11.30 | TRUE |
| 5 | Northampton Saints vs. Sale Sharks | Feb 16 | 67 – 17 | 7.00 | TRUE |
| 6 | Saracens vs. Leicester Tigers | Feb 16 | 33 – 10 | 13.10 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 14
Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Newcastle Falcons | Feb 23 | Exeter Chiefs | 20.10 |
| 2 | Gloucester Rugby vs. Saracens | Feb 23 | Saracens | -3.00 |
| 3 | Harlequins vs. Bristol | Feb 23 | Harlequins | 12.80 |
| 4 | Northampton Saints vs. Bath Rugby | Feb 23 | Northampton Saints | 8.10 |
| 5 | Wasps vs. Sale Sharks | Feb 23 | Wasps | 9.30 |
| 6 | Worcester Warriors vs. Leicester Tigers | Feb 23 | Leicester Tigers | -0.20 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »