Super Rugby Predictions for Round 1
Team Ratings for Round 1
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crusaders | 17.67 | 17.67 | 0.00 |
| Hurricanes | 9.43 | 9.43 | 0.00 |
| Chiefs | 8.56 | 8.56 | 0.00 |
| Lions | 8.28 | 8.28 | -0.00 |
| Highlanders | 4.01 | 4.01 | 0.00 |
| Waratahs | 2.00 | 2.00 | -0.00 |
| Sharks | 0.45 | 0.45 | 0.00 |
| Brumbies | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.00 |
| Jaguares | -0.26 | -0.26 | 0.00 |
| Stormers | -0.39 | -0.39 | 0.00 |
| Blues | -3.42 | -3.42 | 0.00 |
| Bulls | -3.79 | -3.79 | 0.00 |
| Rebels | -7.26 | -7.26 | -0.00 |
| Reds | -8.19 | -8.19 | -0.00 |
| Sunwolves | -16.08 | -16.08 | -0.00 |
Predictions for Round 1
Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chiefs vs. Highlanders | Feb 15 | Chiefs | 8.00 |
| 2 | Brumbies vs. Rebels | Feb 15 | Brumbies | 10.80 |
| 3 | Blues vs. Crusaders | Feb 16 | Crusaders | -17.60 |
| 4 | Waratahs vs. Hurricanes | Feb 16 | Hurricanes | -3.40 |
| 5 | Sunwolves vs. Sharks | Feb 16 | Sharks | -12.50 |
| 6 | Bulls vs. Stormers | Feb 16 | Bulls | 0.10 |
| 7 | Jaguares vs. Lions | Feb 16 | Lions | -4.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Chiefs
Brumbies
Blues
Waratahs
Sharks
Stormers
Jaguares
6 years ago
Blues to beat Crusaders is a big call, but it is a new season with a lot of changes
6 years ago
Not such a big call if you’ve followed the pre-season David. Taking into account the All Blacks missing from the red and black I’m going Blues. But as an Aucklander I might just be a tad biased…
6 years ago
No comment
6 years ago
I agree except I’ve got the Tahs over the Canes and the Jaguares over the Lions.
6 years ago
True, and for some odd reason the crusaders always start off slow in the beginning of the season.
6 years ago
I enjoy your predictions for Super Rugby David and would appreciate you forwarding them to me on email.
I think your predictions for round 1 Super Rugby are spot on except I think for Crusaders. I think Blues might just edge this one.
Regards
Mike.
6 years ago
Thanks Mike.
I have been asked a few times about emailing predictions but it is not something I do. I do try and post on a Tuesday so look for them then. Other people have some sort of alert system which I see in operation because there are multiple hits within in minutes of a post.
6 years ago
You don’t think the Highlander’s can beat the chiefs tomorrow ?
6 years ago
The predictions are not my opinion, they are purely the product of a statistical algorithm. That said, I think the Highlanders will struggle: no Sopoanga, no Liam Squire, no Naholo, Aaron Smith only on the bench. Home ground advantage to the Chiefs.
6 years ago
What are your picks for round 2 David?
6 years ago
Look for them on Tuesday
6 years ago
I think it would be interesting to include the TAB’s odds in your table to see where your predictions deviate from how the bookies/money see things.
6 years ago
Yes, but it would be more work for me.
6 years ago
Awesome work David!
6 years ago
Thanks. Didn’t look so good after Friday night. There were actually four games that could easily have had a different result.
6 years ago