February 8, 2019

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 13

By

Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 10.90 11.19 -0.30
Exeter Chiefs 10.76 11.13 -0.40
Wasps 3.85 8.30 -4.40
Northampton Saints 3.46 3.42 0.00
Leicester Tigers 3.28 6.26 -3.00
Harlequins 3.07 2.05 1.00
Gloucester Rugby 2.44 1.23 1.20
Sale Sharks 2.00 -0.81 2.80
Bath Rugby 1.88 3.11 -1.20
Worcester Warriors -2.71 -5.18 2.50
Bristol -3.51 -5.60 2.10
Newcastle Falcons -3.83 -3.51 -0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 72 matches played, 52 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sale Sharks vs. Saracens Jan 04 24 – 18 -4.50 FALSE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bristol Jan 05 14 – 9 21.20 TRUE
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Gloucester Rugby Jan 05 34 – 16 5.10 TRUE
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. Harlequins Jan 05 17 – 38 0.40 FALSE
5 Worcester Warriors vs. Bath Rugby Jan 05 21 – 19 0.70 TRUE
6 Wasps vs. Northampton Saints Jan 06 27 – 16 4.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath Rugby vs. Newcastle Falcons Feb 16 Bath Rugby 11.20
2 Bristol vs. Wasps Feb 16 Wasps -1.90
3 Gloucester Rugby vs. Exeter Chiefs Feb 16 Exeter Chiefs -2.80
4 Harlequins vs. Worcester Warriors Feb 16 Harlequins 11.30
5 Northampton Saints vs. Sale Sharks Feb 16 Northampton Saints 7.00
6 Saracens vs. Leicester Tigers Feb 16 Saracens 13.10

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »