February 8, 2019

Pro14 Predictions for Round 15

 

Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 12.65 9.80 2.90
Munster 9.86 8.08 1.80
Glasgow Warriors 7.30 8.55 -1.20
Scarlets 3.31 6.39 -3.10
Connacht 2.70 0.01 2.70
Ospreys 1.30 -0.86 2.20
Cardiff Blues 0.57 0.24 0.30
Edinburgh 0.17 -0.64 0.80
Ulster -0.70 2.07 -2.80
Cheetahs -1.96 -0.83 -1.10
Treviso -2.79 -5.19 2.40
Dragons -8.03 -8.59 0.60
Southern Kings -9.87 -7.91 -2.00
Zebre -13.96 -10.57 -3.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 98 matches played, 77 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cheetahs vs. Southern Kings Feb 03 40 – 36 13.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Ospreys vs. Ulster Feb 16 Ospreys 6.50
2 Edinburgh vs. Dragons Feb 16 Edinburgh 12.70
3 Munster vs. Southern Kings Feb 16 Munster 24.20
4 Zebre vs. Leinster Feb 17 Leinster -22.10
5 Treviso vs. Scarlets Feb 17 Scarlets -1.60
6 Connacht vs. Cheetahs Feb 17 Connacht 9.20
7 Cardiff Blues vs. Glasgow Warriors Feb 17 Glasgow Warriors -2.20

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »