Pro14 Predictions for Round 13
Team Ratings for Round 13
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leinster | 12.43 | 9.80 | 2.60 |
| Munster | 10.08 | 8.08 | 2.00 |
| Glasgow Warriors | 8.20 | 8.55 | -0.30 |
| Scarlets | 3.53 | 6.39 | -2.90 |
| Connacht | 2.92 | 0.01 | 2.90 |
| Cardiff Blues | 1.12 | 0.24 | 0.90 |
| Ulster | 0.59 | 2.07 | -1.50 |
| Ospreys | 0.45 | -0.86 | 1.30 |
| Edinburgh | -0.22 | -0.64 | 0.40 |
| Cheetahs | -2.93 | -0.83 | -2.10 |
| Treviso | -3.89 | -5.19 | 1.30 |
| Dragons | -9.26 | -8.59 | -0.70 |
| Southern Kings | -9.63 | -7.91 | -1.70 |
| Zebre | -12.85 | -10.57 | -2.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 82 matches played, 64 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Connacht vs. Ulster | Dec 29 | 21 – 12 | 6.40 | TRUE |
| 2 | Treviso vs. Zebre | Dec 30 | 28 – 10 | 12.60 | TRUE |
| 3 | Glasgow Warriors vs. Edinburgh | Dec 30 | 8 – 16 | 14.60 | FALSE |
| 4 | Munster vs. Leinster | Dec 30 | 26 – 17 | 0.80 | TRUE |
| 5 | Scarlets vs. Cardiff Blues | Dec 30 | 5 – 34 | 9.40 | FALSE |
| 6 | Dragons vs. Ospreys | Dec 31 | 23 – 22 | -6.40 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 13
Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ospreys vs. Cardiff Blues | Jan 05 | Ospreys | 3.80 |
| 2 | Treviso vs. Glasgow Warriors | Jan 06 | Glasgow Warriors | -7.60 |
| 3 | Leinster vs. Ulster | Jan 06 | Leinster | 16.30 |
| 4 | Scarlets vs. Dragons | Jan 06 | Scarlets | 17.30 |
| 5 | Connacht vs. Munster | Jan 06 | Munster | -2.70 |
| 6 | Edinburgh vs. Southern Kings | Jan 06 | Edinburgh | 13.90 |
| 7 | Zebre vs. Cheetahs | Jan 07 | Cheetahs | -5.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »