Pro14 Predictions for Round 12
Team Ratings for Round 12
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leinster | 13.08 | 9.80 | 3.30 |
| Munster | 9.43 | 8.08 | 1.40 |
| Glasgow Warriors | 9.02 | 8.55 | 0.50 |
| Scarlets | 4.77 | 6.39 | -1.60 |
| Connacht | 2.71 | 0.01 | 2.70 |
| Ospreys | 1.05 | -0.86 | 1.90 |
| Ulster | 0.80 | 2.07 | -1.30 |
| Cardiff Blues | -0.12 | 0.24 | -0.40 |
| Edinburgh | -1.05 | -0.64 | -0.40 |
| Cheetahs | -2.93 | -0.83 | -2.10 |
| Treviso | -4.32 | -5.19 | 0.90 |
| Southern Kings | -9.63 | -7.91 | -1.70 |
| Dragons | -9.85 | -8.59 | -1.30 |
| Zebre | -12.41 | -10.57 | -1.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 76 matches played, 61 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 80.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cardiff Blues vs. Dragons | Dec 22 | 19 – 16 | 15.30 | TRUE |
| 2 | Ulster vs. Munster | Dec 22 | 19 – 12 | -5.20 | FALSE |
| 3 | Zebre vs. Treviso | Dec 23 | 8 – 10 | -3.90 | TRUE |
| 4 | Ospreys vs. Scarlets | Dec 23 | 19 – 12 | -0.40 | FALSE |
| 5 | Edinburgh vs. Glasgow Warriors | Dec 23 | 23 – 7 | -7.30 | FALSE |
| 6 | Leinster vs. Connacht | Dec 23 | 33 – 29 | 15.90 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 12
Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Connacht vs. Ulster | Dec 29 | Connacht | 6.40 |
| 2 | Treviso vs. Zebre | Dec 30 | Treviso | 12.60 |
| 3 | Glasgow Warriors vs. Edinburgh | Dec 30 | Glasgow Warriors | 14.60 |
| 4 | Munster vs. Leinster | Dec 30 | Munster | 0.80 |
| 5 | Scarlets vs. Cardiff Blues | Dec 30 | Scarlets | 9.40 |
| 6 | Dragons vs. Ospreys | Dec 31 | Ospreys | -6.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »