Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 10
Team Ratings for Round 10
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saracens | 12.69 | 11.19 | 1.50 |
| Exeter Chiefs | 11.39 | 11.13 | 0.30 |
| Wasps | 4.39 | 8.30 | -3.90 |
| Gloucester Rugby | 3.83 | 1.23 | 2.60 |
| Northampton Saints | 2.42 | 3.42 | -1.00 |
| Leicester Tigers | 2.41 | 6.26 | -3.80 |
| Harlequins | 2.38 | 2.05 | 0.30 |
| Bath Rugby | 0.95 | 3.11 | -2.20 |
| Sale Sharks | 0.10 | -0.81 | 0.90 |
| Worcester Warriors | -2.39 | -5.18 | 2.80 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -2.43 | -3.51 | 1.10 |
| Bristol | -4.14 | -5.60 | 1.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 54 matches played, 40 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Harlequins vs. Exeter Chiefs | Nov 30 | 28 – 26 | -4.70 | FALSE |
| 2 | Bristol vs. Leicester Tigers | Dec 01 | 41 – 10 | -3.60 | FALSE |
| 3 | Gloucester Rugby vs. Worcester Warriors | Dec 01 | 36 – 16 | 10.80 | TRUE |
| 4 | Northampton Saints vs. Newcastle Falcons | Dec 01 | 14 – 16 | 11.60 | FALSE |
| 5 | Saracens vs. Wasps | Dec 01 | 29 – 6 | 12.80 | TRUE |
| 6 | Bath Rugby vs. Sale Sharks | Dec 02 | 7 – 7 | 7.10 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 10
Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Worcester Warriors vs. Northampton Saints | Dec 21 | Worcester Warriors | 0.70 |
| 2 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Saracens | Dec 22 | Exeter Chiefs | 4.20 |
| 3 | Leicester Tigers vs. Harlequins | Dec 22 | Leicester Tigers | 5.50 |
| 4 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Gloucester Rugby | Dec 22 | Gloucester Rugby | -0.80 |
| 5 | Sale Sharks vs. Bristol | Dec 22 | Sale Sharks | 9.70 |
| 6 | Wasps vs. Bath Rugby | Dec 23 | Wasps | 8.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »