December 5, 2018

Pro14 Predictions for Round 11

Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 13.60 9.80 3.80
Munster 9.95 8.08 1.90
Glasgow Warriors 9.87 8.55 1.30
Scarlets 5.36 6.39 -1.00
Connacht 2.20 0.01 2.20
Ospreys 0.45 -0.86 1.30
Cardiff Blues 0.41 0.24 0.20
Ulster 0.28 2.07 -1.80
Edinburgh -1.90 -0.64 -1.30
Cheetahs -2.93 -0.83 -2.10
Treviso -4.17 -5.19 1.00
Southern Kings -9.63 -7.91 -1.70
Dragons -10.37 -8.59 -1.80
Zebre -12.57 -10.57 -2.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 70 matches played, 58 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 82.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Munster vs. Edinburgh Dec 01 44 – 14 15.10 TRUE
2 Ospreys vs. Zebre Dec 01 43 – 0 15.60 TRUE
3 Cheetahs vs. Connacht Dec 02 17 – 21 0.00 FALSE
4 Ulster vs. Cardiff Blues Dec 02 16 – 12 4.40 TRUE
5 Dragons vs. Leinster Dec 02 10 – 59 -17.30 TRUE
6 Glasgow Warriors vs. Scarlets Dec 02 29 – 20 9.00 TRUE
7 Southern Kings vs. Treviso Dec 02 19 – 22 -0.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cardiff Blues vs. Dragons Dec 22 Cardiff Blues 15.30
2 Ulster vs. Munster Dec 22 Munster -5.20
3 Zebre vs. Treviso Dec 23 Treviso -3.90
4 Ospreys vs. Scarlets Dec 23 Scarlets -0.40
5 Edinburgh vs. Glasgow Warriors Dec 23 Glasgow Warriors -7.30
6 Leinster vs. Connacht Dec 23 Leinster 15.90

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »