Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 9
Team Ratings for Round 9
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saracens | 12.17 | 11.19 | 1.00 |
| Exeter Chiefs | 12.00 | 11.13 | 0.90 |
| Wasps | 4.90 | 8.30 | -3.40 |
| Leicester Tigers | 3.70 | 6.26 | -2.60 |
| Gloucester Rugby | 3.35 | 1.23 | 2.10 |
| Northampton Saints | 3.06 | 3.42 | -0.40 |
| Harlequins | 1.77 | 2.05 | -0.30 |
| Bath Rugby | 1.34 | 3.11 | -1.80 |
| Sale Sharks | -0.30 | -0.81 | 0.50 |
| Worcester Warriors | -1.92 | -5.18 | 3.30 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -3.07 | -3.51 | 0.40 |
| Bristol | -5.43 | -5.60 | 0.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 48 matches played, 38 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 79.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Bath Rugby | Nov 23 | 16 – 8 | 0.30 | TRUE |
| 2 | Worcester Warriors vs. Harlequins | Nov 23 | 20 – 13 | 0.70 | TRUE |
| 3 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Gloucester Rugby | Nov 24 | 23 – 6 | 13.50 | TRUE |
| 4 | Sale Sharks vs. Northampton Saints | Nov 24 | 18 – 13 | 1.50 | TRUE |
| 5 | Wasps vs. Bristol | Nov 24 | 32 – 28 | 17.10 | TRUE |
| 6 | Leicester Tigers vs. Saracens | Nov 25 | 22 – 27 | -2.50 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 9
Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Harlequins vs. Exeter Chiefs | Nov 30 | Exeter Chiefs | -4.70 |
| 2 | Bristol vs. Leicester Tigers | Dec 01 | Leicester Tigers | -3.60 |
| 3 | Gloucester Rugby vs. Worcester Warriors | Dec 01 | Gloucester Rugby | 10.80 |
| 4 | Northampton Saints vs. Newcastle Falcons | Dec 01 | Northampton Saints | 11.60 |
| 5 | Saracens vs. Wasps | Dec 01 | Saracens | 12.80 |
| 6 | Bath Rugby vs. Sale Sharks | Dec 02 | Bath Rugby | 7.10 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »