Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 7
Team Ratings for Round 7
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saracens | 12.58 | 11.19 | 1.40 |
| Exeter Chiefs | 12.24 | 11.13 | 1.10 |
| Wasps | 6.28 | 8.30 | -2.00 |
| Leicester Tigers | 4.75 | 6.26 | -1.50 |
| Gloucester Rugby | 2.83 | 1.23 | 1.60 |
| Northampton Saints | 2.62 | 3.42 | -0.80 |
| Harlequins | 2.16 | 2.05 | 0.10 |
| Bath Rugby | 1.32 | 3.11 | -1.80 |
| Sale Sharks | -1.24 | -0.81 | -0.40 |
| Worcester Warriors | -2.05 | -5.18 | 3.10 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -3.30 | -3.51 | 0.20 |
| Bristol | -6.60 | -5.60 | -1.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 36 matches played, 26 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bath Rugby vs. Exeter Chiefs | Oct 05 | 24 – 39 | -4.40 | TRUE |
| 2 | Wasps vs. Gloucester Rugby | Oct 06 | 21 – 35 | 11.00 | FALSE |
| 3 | Sale Sharks vs. Newcastle Falcons | Oct 06 | 20 – 7 | 6.40 | TRUE |
| 4 | Northampton Saints vs. Leicester Tigers | Oct 06 | 15 – 23 | 4.60 | FALSE |
| 5 | Harlequins vs. Saracens | Oct 06 | 20 – 25 | -4.90 | TRUE |
| 6 | Worcester Warriors vs. Bristol | Oct 07 | 52 – 7 | 7.30 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 7
Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gloucester Rugby vs. Leicester Tigers | Nov 16 | Gloucester Rugby | 3.60 |
| 2 | Harlequins vs. Newcastle Falcons | Nov 16 | Harlequins | 11.00 |
| 3 | Bath Rugby vs. Worcester Warriors | Nov 17 | Bath Rugby | 8.90 |
| 4 | Northampton Saints vs. Wasps | Nov 17 | Northampton Saints | 1.80 |
| 5 | Saracens vs. Sale Sharks | Nov 17 | Saracens | 19.30 |
| 6 | Bristol vs. Exeter Chiefs | Nov 18 | Exeter Chiefs | -13.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »