Currie Cup Predictions for the SemiFinals
Team Ratings for the SemiFinals
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Note that Cheetahs2 refers the Cheetahs team when there is a Pro14 match. The assumption is that the team playing in the Pro14 is the top team and the Currie Cup team is essentially a second team.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Western Province | 8.57 | 4.66 | 3.90 |
| Sharks | 4.28 | 4.18 | 0.10 |
| Lions | 2.80 | 3.23 | -0.40 |
| Cheetahs | 2.23 | 3.86 | -1.60 |
| Blue Bulls | -0.22 | 0.94 | -1.20 |
| Pumas | -8.17 | -8.36 | 0.20 |
| Griquas | -11.05 | -9.78 | -1.30 |
| Cheetahs2 | -29.69 | -30.00 | 0.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 21 matches played, 18 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 85.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pumas vs. Lions | Oct 12 | 21 – 33 | -5.40 | TRUE |
| 2 | Griquas vs. Sharks | Oct 13 | 11 – 41 | -9.50 | TRUE |
| 3 | Blue Bulls vs. Western Province | Oct 13 | 7 – 34 | -2.80 | TRUE |
Predictions for the SemiFinals
Here are the predictions for the SemiFinals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sharks vs. Lions | Oct 20 | Sharks | 6.00 |
| 2 | Western Province vs. Blue Bulls | Oct 20 | Western Province | 13.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »