September 25, 2018

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 7

Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Wellington 15.79 12.18 3.60
Canterbury 13.13 15.32 -2.20
Auckland 5.93 -0.50 6.40
Waikato 4.45 -3.24 7.70
Tasman 4.45 2.62 1.80
North Harbour 4.23 6.42 -2.20
Taranaki 0.13 6.58 -6.40
Otago -0.65 0.33 -1.00
Northland -1.84 -3.45 1.60
Bay of Plenty -2.20 0.27 -2.50
Counties Manukau -2.30 1.84 -4.10
Hawke’s Bay -10.06 -13.00 2.90
Manawatu -10.67 -4.36 -6.30
Southland -22.57 -23.17 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 46 matches played, 33 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Manawatu vs. Tasman Sep 19 19 – 29 -9.90 TRUE
2 Northland vs. Southland Sep 20 26 – 10 26.70 TRUE
3 Bay of Plenty vs. Waikato Sep 21 21 – 54 4.00 FALSE
4 Hawke’s Bay vs. North Harbour Sep 22 34 – 51 -8.80 TRUE
5 Otago vs. Canterbury Sep 22 25 – 47 -7.10 TRUE
6 Taranaki vs. Auckland Sep 22 30 – 31 -2.00 TRUE
7 Tasman vs. Counties Manukau Sep 23 21 – 19 12.70 TRUE
8 Manawatu vs. Wellington Sep 23 7 – 49 -18.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hawke’s Bay vs. Northland Sep 26 Northland -4.20
2 Bay of Plenty vs. Manawatu Sep 27 Bay of Plenty 12.50
3 Auckland vs. Otago Sep 28 Auckland 10.60
4 Waikato vs. Southland Sep 29 Waikato 31.00
5 Taranaki vs. North Harbour Sep 29 North Harbour -0.10
6 Wellington vs. Tasman Sep 29 Wellington 15.30
7 Canterbury vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 30 Canterbury 27.20
8 Counties Manukau vs. Northland Sep 30 Counties Manukau 3.50

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »