September 11, 2018

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 13.03 15.32 -2.30
Wellington 10.56 12.18 -1.60
Auckland 4.39 -0.50 4.90
North Harbour 3.25 6.42 -3.20
Taranaki 2.97 6.58 -3.60
Tasman 2.48 2.62 -0.10
Bay of Plenty 1.75 0.27 1.50
Otago 0.82 0.33 0.50
Waikato 0.51 -3.24 3.70
Counties Manukau -0.17 1.84 -2.00
Northland -2.89 -3.45 0.60
Manawatu -6.51 -4.36 -2.10
Hawke’s Bay -8.71 -13.00 4.30
Southland -23.66 -23.17 -0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 30 matches played, 19 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Waikato vs. Wellington Sep 05 43 – 31 -12.70 FALSE
2 Canterbury vs. Manawatu Sep 06 34 – 23 26.30 TRUE
3 Otago vs. Northland Sep 07 27 – 23 8.50 TRUE
4 Auckland vs. Tasman Sep 07 36 – 10 1.50 TRUE
5 Southland vs. Counties Manukau Sep 08 26 – 43 -20.00 TRUE
6 Hawke’s Bay vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 08 29 – 28 -8.10 FALSE
7 Wellington vs. North Harbour Sep 09 35 – 23 13.40 TRUE
8 Taranaki vs. Waikato Sep 09 19 – 33 13.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 North Harbour vs. Canterbury Sep 12 Canterbury -5.80
2 Waikato vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 13 Waikato 13.20
3 Northland vs. Manawatu Sep 14 Northland 7.60
4 Tasman vs. Taranaki Sep 14 Tasman 3.50
5 Counties Manukau vs. Wellington Sep 15 Wellington -6.70
6 Southland vs. Otago Sep 15 Otago -20.50
7 North Harbour vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 16 North Harbour 5.50
8 Canterbury vs. Auckland Sep 16 Canterbury 12.60

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

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