September 4, 2018

NRL Predictions for Finals Week 1

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Team Ratings for Finals Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 7.55 16.73 -9.20
Roosters 6.66 0.13 6.50
Broncos 5.67 4.78 0.90
Sharks 5.66 2.20 3.50
Rabbitohs 3.95 -3.90 7.80
Raiders 1.85 3.50 -1.70
Cowboys 0.13 2.97 -2.80
Warriors 0.01 -6.97 7.00
Panthers -0.14 2.64 -2.80
Bulldogs -0.82 -3.43 2.60
Dragons -3.25 -0.45 -2.80
Titans -4.06 -8.91 4.90
Wests Tigers -5.43 -3.63 -1.80
Sea Eagles -5.47 -1.07 -4.40
Eels -5.98 1.51 -7.50
Knights -8.66 -8.43 -0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 192 matches played, 119 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Wests Tigers Aug 30 51 – 10 7.70 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Raiders Aug 31 20 – 16 2.40 TRUE
3 Storm vs. Panthers Aug 31 16 – 22 13.40 FALSE
4 Knights vs. Dragons Sep 01 14 – 24 -1.20 TRUE
5 Titans vs. Cowboys Sep 01 26 – 30 -0.70 TRUE
6 Eels vs. Roosters Sep 01 10 – 44 -5.70 TRUE
7 Bulldogs vs. Sharks Sep 02 18 – 30 -2.10 TRUE
8 Broncos vs. Sea Eagles Sep 02 48 – 16 11.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 1

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Rabbitohs Sep 07 Storm 6.60
2 Panthers vs. Warriors Sep 08 Panthers 4.40
3 Roosters vs. Sharks Sep 08 Roosters 4.00
4 Broncos vs. Dragons Sep 09 Broncos 11.90

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

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