Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 4
Team Ratings for Round 4
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canterbury | 14.41 | 15.32 | -0.90 |
| Wellington | 12.71 | 12.18 | 0.50 |
| Taranaki | 5.22 | 6.58 | -1.40 |
| Tasman | 4.68 | 2.62 | 2.10 |
| North Harbour | 3.32 | 6.42 | -3.10 |
| Bay of Plenty | 2.57 | 0.27 | 2.30 |
| Auckland | 2.19 | -0.50 | 2.70 |
| Otago | 1.23 | 0.33 | 0.90 |
| Counties Manukau | 0.10 | 1.84 | -1.70 |
| Northland | -3.30 | -3.45 | 0.10 |
| Waikato | -3.96 | -3.24 | -0.70 |
| Manawatu | -7.89 | -4.36 | -3.50 |
| Hawke’s Bay | -9.53 | -13.00 | 3.50 |
| Southland | -23.94 | -23.17 | -0.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 22 matches played, 14 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Counties Manukau vs. Taranaki | Aug 29 | 19 – 26 | -0.30 | TRUE |
| 2 | Auckland vs. Waikato | Aug 30 | 35 – 17 | 8.40 | TRUE |
| 3 | Wellington vs. Southland | Aug 31 | 52 – 7 | 39.70 | TRUE |
| 4 | Bay of Plenty vs. Canterbury | Sep 01 | 19 – 31 | -6.90 | TRUE |
| 5 | Manawatu vs. Otago | Sep 01 | 17 – 50 | 1.00 | FALSE |
| 6 | North Harbour vs. Tasman | Sep 01 | 20 – 32 | 5.90 | FALSE |
| 7 | Hawke’s Bay vs. Counties Manukau | Sep 02 | 25 – 29 | -6.60 | TRUE |
| 8 | Northland vs. Taranaki | Sep 02 | 18 – 17 | -5.10 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 4
Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Waikato vs. Wellington | Sep 05 | Wellington | -12.70 |
| 2 | Canterbury vs. Manawatu | Sep 06 | Canterbury | 26.30 |
| 3 | Otago vs. Northland | Sep 07 | Otago | 8.50 |
| 4 | Auckland vs. Tasman | Sep 07 | Auckland | 1.50 |
| 5 | Southland vs. Counties Manukau | Sep 08 | Counties Manukau | -20.00 |
| 6 | Hawke’s Bay vs. Bay of Plenty | Sep 08 | Bay of Plenty | -8.10 |
| 7 | Wellington vs. North Harbour | Sep 09 | Wellington | 13.40 |
| 8 | Taranaki vs. Waikato | Sep 09 | Taranaki | 13.20 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Hi David,
Game 3: Northland is playing Otago, not Hawkes Bay.
Cheers,
Les
6 years ago
Thanks for the correction (and from Dave Moore as well). Seems that there was an error in the file originally obtained from the Mitre 10 Cup website. I certainly didn’t enter the fixture list by hand. Anyway, fixed now.
6 years ago