NRL Predictions for Round 25
Team Ratings for Round 25
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 8.91 | 16.73 | -7.80 |
| Sharks | 4.97 | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| Roosters | 4.68 | 0.13 | 4.50 |
| Broncos | 4.21 | 4.78 | -0.60 |
| Raiders | 1.96 | 3.50 | -1.50 |
| Rabbitohs | 1.62 | -3.90 | 5.50 |
| Cowboys | -0.09 | 2.97 | -3.10 |
| Warriors | -0.10 | -6.97 | 6.90 |
| Bulldogs | -0.12 | -3.43 | 3.30 |
| Panthers | -1.50 | 2.64 | -4.10 |
| Wests Tigers | -3.10 | -3.63 | 0.50 |
| Titans | -3.84 | -8.91 | 5.10 |
| Dragons | -3.87 | -0.45 | -3.40 |
| Eels | -4.00 | 1.51 | -5.50 |
| Sea Eagles | -4.02 | -1.07 | -3.00 |
| Knights | -8.04 | -8.43 | 0.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 184 matches played, 112 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wests Tigers vs. Sea Eagles | Aug 23 | 22 – 20 | 4.20 | TRUE |
| 2 | Warriors vs. Panthers | Aug 24 | 36 – 16 | 3.60 | TRUE |
| 3 | Cowboys vs. Eels | Aug 24 | 44 – 6 | 1.80 | TRUE |
| 4 | Raiders vs. Rabbitohs | Aug 25 | 24 – 12 | 1.90 | TRUE |
| 5 | Titans vs. Storm | Aug 25 | 8 – 10 | -11.00 | TRUE |
| 6 | Roosters vs. Broncos | Aug 25 | 8 – 22 | 6.30 | FALSE |
| 7 | Sharks vs. Knights | Aug 26 | 38 – 12 | 14.40 | TRUE |
| 8 | Dragons vs. Bulldogs | Aug 26 | 0 – 38 | 5.30 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 25
Here are the predictions for Round 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rabbitohs vs. Wests Tigers | Aug 30 | Rabbitohs | 7.70 |
| 2 | Warriors vs. Raiders | Aug 31 | Warriors | 2.40 |
| 3 | Storm vs. Panthers | Aug 31 | Storm | 13.40 |
| 4 | Knights vs. Dragons | Sep 01 | Dragons | -1.20 |
| 5 | Titans vs. Cowboys | Sep 01 | Cowboys | -0.70 |
| 6 | Eels vs. Roosters | Sep 01 | Roosters | -5.70 |
| 7 | Bulldogs vs. Sharks | Sep 02 | Sharks | -2.10 |
| 8 | Broncos vs. Sea Eagles | Sep 02 | Broncos | 11.20 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »