Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 3
Team Ratings for Round 3
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canterbury | 13.95 | 15.32 | -1.40 |
| Wellington | 12.23 | 12.18 | 0.10 |
| Taranaki | 5.23 | 6.58 | -1.40 |
| North Harbour | 4.93 | 6.42 | -1.50 |
| Tasman | 3.07 | 2.62 | 0.50 |
| Bay of Plenty | 3.03 | 0.27 | 2.80 |
| Auckland | 1.33 | -0.50 | 1.80 |
| Counties Manukau | 0.88 | 1.84 | -1.00 |
| Otago | -1.83 | 0.33 | -2.20 |
| Waikato | -3.10 | -3.24 | 0.10 |
| Northland | -3.91 | -3.45 | -0.50 |
| Manawatu | -4.83 | -4.36 | -0.50 |
| Hawke’s Bay | -9.71 | -13.00 | 3.30 |
| Southland | -23.46 | -23.17 | -0.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 14 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Counties Manukau vs. Bay of Plenty | Aug 23 | 17 – 22 | 3.40 | FALSE |
| 2 | Otago vs. Hawke’s Bay | Aug 24 | 25 – 31 | 15.80 | FALSE |
| 3 | Taranaki vs. Manawatu | Aug 24 | 41 – 21 | 12.70 | TRUE |
| 4 | Canterbury vs. Wellington | Aug 25 | 27 – 20 | 5.40 | TRUE |
| 5 | Waikato vs. North Harbour | Aug 25 | 28 – 29 | -4.70 | TRUE |
| 6 | Tasman vs. Southland | Aug 26 | 45 – 24 | 32.60 | TRUE |
| 7 | Northland vs. Auckland | Aug 26 | 12 – 28 | 2.00 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 3
Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Counties Manukau vs. Taranaki | Aug 29 | Taranaki | -0.30 |
| 2 | Auckland vs. Waikato | Aug 30 | Auckland | 8.40 |
| 3 | Wellington vs. Southland | Aug 31 | Wellington | 39.70 |
| 4 | Bay of Plenty vs. Canterbury | Sep 01 | Canterbury | -6.90 |
| 5 | Manawatu vs. Otago | Sep 01 | Manawatu | 1.00 |
| 6 | North Harbour vs. Tasman | Sep 01 | North Harbour | 5.90 |
| 7 | Hawke’s Bay vs. Counties Manukau | Sep 02 | Counties Manukau | -6.60 |
| 8 | Northland vs. Taranaki | Sep 02 | Taranaki | -5.10 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »