July 23, 2018

NRL Predictions for Round 20

Team Ratings for Round 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 9.62 16.73 -7.10
Roosters 5.70 0.13 5.60
Sharks 3.94 2.20 1.70
Raiders 3.88 3.50 0.40
Rabbitohs 3.33 -3.90 7.20
Broncos 3.08 4.78 -1.70
Dragons 2.85 -0.45 3.30
Panthers 0.69 2.64 -1.90
Warriors -1.05 -6.97 5.90
Wests Tigers -2.47 -3.63 1.20
Cowboys -2.88 2.97 -5.80
Bulldogs -4.26 -3.43 -0.80
Sea Eagles -4.80 -1.07 -3.70
Eels -5.28 1.51 -6.80
Titans -6.40 -8.91 2.50
Knights -8.27 -8.43 0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 144 matches played, 88 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Eels vs. Bulldogs Jul 19 14 – 8 1.30 TRUE
2 Sharks vs. Raiders Jul 20 28 – 24 2.90 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Panthers Jul 20 50 – 18 1.10 TRUE
4 Knights vs. Titans Jul 21 30 – 24 0.30 TRUE
5 Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs Jul 21 22 – 6 -5.90 FALSE
6 Cowboys vs. Dragons Jul 21 10 – 24 -0.90 TRUE
7 Warriors vs. Storm Jul 22 6 – 12 -6.20 TRUE
8 Sea Eagles vs. Roosters Jul 22 24 – 56 -3.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Sharks Jul 26 Broncos 2.10
2 Cowboys vs. Knights Jul 27 Cowboys 8.40
3 Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers Jul 27 Bulldogs 1.20
4 Sea Eagles vs. Panthers Jul 28 Panthers -2.50
5 Rabbitohs vs. Eels Jul 28 Rabbitohs 11.60
6 Storm vs. Raiders Jul 28 Storm 8.70
7 Titans vs. Warriors Jul 29 Warriors -0.80
8 Roosters vs. Dragons Jul 29 Roosters 5.80

 

avatar

David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »