July 11, 2018

Super 15 Predictions for Round 19

Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 16.14 15.23 0.90
Hurricanes 11.21 16.18 -5.00
Chiefs 8.65 9.29 -0.60
Lions 7.81 13.81 -6.00
Highlanders 5.68 10.29 -4.60
Waratahs 2.97 -3.92 6.90
Sharks 0.86 1.02 -0.20
Jaguares 0.39 -4.64 5.00
Stormers -0.33 1.48 -1.80
Brumbies -1.05 1.75 -2.80
Blues -2.29 -0.24 -2.10
Bulls -3.12 -4.79 1.70
Rebels -8.72 -14.96 6.20
Reds -9.22 -9.47 0.30
Sunwolves -16.39 -18.42 2.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 113 matches played, 78 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Jul 06 45 – 22 12.70 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Rebels Jul 06 37 – 23 1.50 TRUE
3 Chiefs vs. Brumbies Jul 07 24 – 19 14.90 TRUE
4 Hurricanes vs. Blues Jul 07 42 – 24 16.90 TRUE
5 Waratahs vs. Sunwolves Jul 07 77 – 25 19.50 TRUE
6 Bulls vs. Jaguares Jul 07 43 – 34 -0.70 FALSE
7 Stormers vs. Sharks Jul 07 27 – 16 1.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Hurricanes Jul 13 Chiefs 0.90
2 Reds vs. Sunwolves Jul 13 Reds 11.20
3 Highlanders vs. Rebels Jul 14 Highlanders 18.40
4 Crusaders vs. Blues Jul 14 Crusaders 21.90
5 Waratahs vs. Brumbies Jul 14 Waratahs 7.50
6 Lions vs. Bulls Jul 14 Lions 14.40
7 Sharks vs. Jaguares Jul 14 Sharks 4.50

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »