July 11, 2018

NRL Predictions for Round 18

Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 10.32 16.73 -6.40
Panthers 4.00 2.64 1.40
Rabbitohs 3.87 -3.90 7.80
Roosters 3.60 0.13 3.50
Broncos 3.08 4.78 -1.70
Dragons 2.99 -0.45 3.40
Sharks 2.72 2.20 0.50
Raiders 2.56 3.50 -0.90
Cowboys -0.57 2.97 -3.50
Bulldogs -2.94 -3.43 0.50
Warriors -3.22 -6.97 3.80
Sea Eagles -3.50 -1.07 -2.40
Wests Tigers -5.06 -3.63 -1.40
Eels -5.43 1.51 -6.90
Titans -5.90 -8.91 3.00
Knights -8.83 -8.43 -0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 128 matches played, 77 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Storm vs. Dragons Jul 05 52 – 30 8.40 TRUE
2 Panthers vs. Warriors Jul 06 36 – 4 8.40 TRUE
3 Bulldogs vs. Raiders Jul 07 28 – 32 -2.30 TRUE
4 Titans vs. Broncos Jul 08 0 – 34 -1.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Sharks Jul 13 Panthers 4.30
2 Knights vs. Eels Jul 13 Eels -0.40
3 Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs Jul 14 Rabbitohs -3.80
4 Sea Eagles vs. Storm Jul 14 Storm -10.80
5 Raiders vs. Cowboys Jul 14 Raiders 6.10
6 Broncos vs. Warriors Jul 15 Broncos 10.80
7 Dragons vs. Wests Tigers Jul 15 Dragons 11.00
8 Titans vs. Roosters Jul 15 Roosters -6.50

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar
    Nimzon nimo

    How you have predicted is likely true

    6 years ago