NRL Predictions for Round 17
Team Ratings for Round 17
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 9.37 | 16.73 | -7.40 |
| Dragons | 3.94 | -0.45 | 4.40 |
| Rabbitohs | 3.87 | -3.90 | 7.80 |
| Roosters | 3.60 | 0.13 | 3.50 |
| Sharks | 2.72 | 2.20 | 0.50 |
| Raiders | 2.44 | 3.50 | -1.10 |
| Panthers | 2.35 | 2.64 | -0.30 |
| Broncos | 0.79 | 4.78 | -4.00 |
| Cowboys | -0.57 | 2.97 | -3.50 |
| Warriors | -1.57 | -6.97 | 5.40 |
| Bulldogs | -2.82 | -3.43 | 0.60 |
| Sea Eagles | -3.50 | -1.07 | -2.40 |
| Titans | -3.62 | -8.91 | 5.30 |
| Wests Tigers | -5.06 | -3.63 | -1.40 |
| Eels | -5.43 | 1.51 | -6.90 |
| Knights | -8.83 | -8.43 | -0.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 124 matches played, 73 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dragons vs. Eels | Jun 28 | 20 – 18 | 14.10 | TRUE |
| 2 | Warriors vs. Sharks | Jun 29 | 15 – 18 | 0.70 | FALSE |
| 3 | Roosters vs. Storm | Jun 29 | 8 – 9 | -3.10 | TRUE |
| 4 | Panthers vs. Sea Eagles | Jun 30 | 10 – 18 | 11.60 | FALSE |
| 5 | Knights vs. Bulldogs | Jun 30 | 16 – 36 | -0.20 | TRUE |
| 6 | Broncos vs. Raiders | Jun 30 | 26 – 22 | 0.90 | TRUE |
| 7 | Wests Tigers vs. Titans | Jul 01 | 12 – 30 | 4.70 | FALSE |
| 8 | Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys | Jul 01 | 21 – 20 | 8.50 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 17
Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Storm vs. Dragons | Jul 05 | Storm | 8.40 |
| 2 | Panthers vs. Warriors | Jul 06 | Panthers | 8.40 |
| 3 | Bulldogs vs. Raiders | Jul 07 | Raiders | -2.30 |
| 4 | Titans vs. Broncos | Jul 08 | Broncos | -1.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »