Super 15 Predictions for the Super Rugby Final
Team Ratings for the Super Rugby Final
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Crusaders | 18.10 | 15.23 | 2.90 |
Hurricanes | 10.29 | 16.18 | -5.90 |
Lions | 9.23 | 13.81 | -4.60 |
Chiefs | 9.12 | 9.29 | -0.20 |
Highlanders | 4.58 | 10.29 | -5.70 |
Waratahs | 1.88 | -3.92 | 5.80 |
Sharks | 0.58 | 1.02 | -0.40 |
Brumbies | -0.06 | 1.75 | -1.80 |
Jaguares | -0.22 | -4.64 | 4.40 |
Stormers | -0.33 | 1.48 | -1.80 |
Blues | -3.20 | -0.24 | -3.00 |
Bulls | -3.81 | -4.79 | 1.00 |
Rebels | -7.97 | -14.96 | 7.00 |
Reds | -8.63 | -9.47 | 0.80 |
Sunwolves | -16.98 | -18.42 | 1.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 126 matches played, 90 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Crusaders vs. Hurricanes | Jul 28 | 30 – 12 | 10.40 | TRUE |
2 | Lions vs. Waratahs | Jul 29 | 44 – 26 | 10.40 | TRUE |
Predictions for the Super Rugby Final
Here are the predictions for the Super Rugby Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Crusaders vs. Lions | Aug 04 | Crusaders | 12.90 |