NRL Predictions for Round 13
Team Ratings for Round 13
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 8.88 | 16.73 | -7.90 |
| Panthers | 5.75 | 2.64 | 3.10 |
| Dragons | 3.94 | -0.45 | 4.40 |
| Rabbitohs | 3.69 | -3.90 | 7.60 |
| Sharks | 3.43 | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| Roosters | 2.15 | 0.13 | 2.00 |
| Broncos | 0.15 | 4.78 | -4.60 |
| Raiders | -0.15 | 3.50 | -3.70 |
| Cowboys | -0.63 | 2.97 | -3.60 |
| Sea Eagles | -0.91 | -1.07 | 0.20 |
| Wests Tigers | -0.99 | -3.63 | 2.60 |
| Bulldogs | -2.16 | -3.43 | 1.30 |
| Eels | -3.65 | 1.51 | -5.20 |
| Warriors | -4.13 | -6.97 | 2.80 |
| Titans | -7.81 | -8.91 | 1.10 |
| Knights | -9.88 | -8.43 | -1.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 96 matches played, 57 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broncos vs. Eels | May 24 | 18 – 10 | 6.60 | TRUE |
| 2 | Raiders vs. Sea Eagles | May 25 | 21 – 20 | 4.20 | TRUE |
| 3 | Cowboys vs. Storm | May 25 | 6 – 7 | -7.40 | TRUE |
| 4 | Roosters vs. Titans | May 26 | 34 – 14 | 11.80 | TRUE |
| 5 | Warriors vs. Rabbitohs | May 26 | 10 – 30 | -0.60 | TRUE |
| 6 | Panthers vs. Dragons | May 26 | 28 – 2 | 1.40 | TRUE |
| 7 | Knights vs. Sharks | May 27 | 10 – 48 | -5.80 | TRUE |
| 8 | Wests Tigers vs. Bulldogs | May 27 | 14 – 10 | 4.20 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 13
Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sea Eagles vs. Cowboys | May 31 | Sea Eagles | 2.70 |
| 2 | Rabbitohs vs. Sharks | Jun 01 | Rabbitohs | 3.30 |
| 3 | Eels vs. Knights | Jun 02 | Eels | 9.20 |
| 4 | Roosters vs. Wests Tigers | Jun 03 | Roosters | 6.10 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Perfect guest
7 years ago
A rare week: predicted the winner of the Aviva Premiership Final, all of the winners in the NRL round, and all but one of the winners in the Super Rugby.
7 years ago
What your perspective with this round 13.
Will the above teams are confirm winners of round 13
7 years ago
Perfect
7 years ago