NRL Predictions for Round 12
Team Ratings for Round 12
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 9.33 | 16.73 | -7.40 |
| Dragons | 5.66 | -0.45 | 6.10 |
| Panthers | 4.02 | 2.64 | 1.40 |
| Rabbitohs | 2.34 | -3.90 | 6.20 |
| Roosters | 1.58 | 0.13 | 1.40 |
| Sharks | 1.18 | 2.20 | -1.00 |
| Raiders | 0.07 | 3.50 | -3.40 |
| Broncos | 0.06 | 4.78 | -4.70 |
| Wests Tigers | -0.98 | -3.63 | 2.70 |
| Cowboys | -1.08 | 2.97 | -4.00 |
| Sea Eagles | -1.14 | -1.07 | -0.10 |
| Bulldogs | -2.17 | -3.43 | 1.30 |
| Warriors | -2.77 | -6.97 | 4.20 |
| Eels | -3.55 | 1.51 | -5.10 |
| Titans | -7.24 | -8.91 | 1.70 |
| Knights | -7.63 | -8.43 | 0.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 88 matches played, 49 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 55.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panthers vs. Wests Tigers | May 17 | 16 – 2 | 7.00 | TRUE |
| 2 | Eels vs. Warriors | May 18 | 14 – 24 | 6.00 | FALSE |
| 3 | Broncos vs. Roosters | May 18 | 28 – 22 | 0.70 | TRUE |
| 4 | Titans vs. Knights | May 19 | 33 – 26 | 2.80 | TRUE |
| 5 | Cowboys vs. Rabbitohs | May 19 | 19 – 20 | -0.30 | TRUE |
| 6 | Storm vs. Sea Eagles | May 19 | 4 – 24 | 18.90 | FALSE |
| 7 | Dragons vs. Raiders | May 20 | 25 – 18 | 8.80 | TRUE |
| 8 | Sharks vs. Bulldogs | May 20 | 22 – 16 | 6.40 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 12
Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broncos vs. Eels | May 24 | Broncos | 6.60 |
| 2 | Raiders vs. Sea Eagles | May 25 | Raiders | 4.20 |
| 3 | Cowboys vs. Storm | May 25 | Storm | -7.40 |
| 4 | Roosters vs. Titans | May 26 | Roosters | 11.80 |
| 5 | Warriors vs. Rabbitohs | May 26 | Rabbitohs | -0.60 |
| 6 | Panthers vs. Dragons | May 26 | Panthers | 1.40 |
| 7 | Knights vs. Sharks | May 27 | Sharks | -5.80 |
| 8 | Wests Tigers vs. Bulldogs | May 27 | Wests Tigers | 4.20 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »