NRL Predictions for Round 11
Team Ratings for Round 11
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 12.06 | 16.73 | -4.70 |
| Dragons | 5.79 | -0.45 | 6.20 |
| Panthers | 3.53 | 2.64 | 0.90 |
| Rabbitohs | 2.29 | -3.90 | 6.20 |
| Roosters | 1.95 | 0.13 | 1.80 |
| Sharks | 1.21 | 2.20 | -1.00 |
| Raiders | -0.06 | 3.50 | -3.60 |
| Broncos | -0.31 | 4.78 | -5.10 |
| Wests Tigers | -0.49 | -3.63 | 3.10 |
| Cowboys | -1.03 | 2.97 | -4.00 |
| Bulldogs | -2.20 | -3.43 | 1.20 |
| Eels | -2.43 | 1.51 | -3.90 |
| Sea Eagles | -3.86 | -1.07 | -2.80 |
| Warriors | -3.88 | -6.97 | 3.10 |
| Knights | -7.34 | -8.43 | 1.10 |
| Titans | -7.53 | -8.91 | 1.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 80 matches played, 43 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 53.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys | May 10 | 20 – 12 | 2.80 | TRUE |
| 2 | Knights vs. Panthers | May 11 | 18 – 29 | -7.40 | TRUE |
| 3 | Bulldogs vs. Eels | May 11 | 20 – 12 | 2.50 | TRUE |
| 4 | Warriors vs. Roosters | May 12 | 0 – 32 | 3.70 | FALSE |
| 5 | Storm vs. Titans | May 12 | 28 – 14 | 24.00 | TRUE |
| 6 | Sea Eagles vs. Broncos | May 12 | 38 – 24 | -2.90 | FALSE |
| 7 | Rabbitohs vs. Dragons | May 13 | 24 – 10 | -2.90 | FALSE |
| 8 | Raiders vs. Sharks | May 13 | 16 – 24 | 3.30 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 11
Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panthers vs. Wests Tigers | May 17 | Panthers | 7.00 |
| 2 | Eels vs. Warriors | May 18 | Eels | 6.00 |
| 3 | Broncos vs. Roosters | May 18 | Broncos | 0.70 |
| 4 | Titans vs. Knights | May 19 | Titans | 2.80 |
| 5 | Cowboys vs. Rabbitohs | May 19 | Rabbitohs | -0.30 |
| 6 | Storm vs. Sea Eagles | May 19 | Storm | 18.90 |
| 7 | Dragons vs. Raiders | May 20 | Dragons | 8.80 |
| 8 | Sharks vs. Bulldogs | May 20 | Sharks | 6.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Hi David,
Have you thought about doing something like the NRL and Super Rugby predictions, but for AFL or any other sport?
Regards
7 years ago
The method is actually taken from AFL predictions produced by Stephen Clarke. Netball has been suggested as a possibility and the method would work for that and basketball. Tied games might be a problem in some netball competitions. I understand that they are not permitted in basketball. The method would not work for soccer or hockey.
7 years ago
Where could I find the AFL predictions by Stephen?
7 years ago
Never mind, I have found his page. Thank you
7 years ago
Hi David,
There doesn’t seem to be anything with score predictions only tips. Are you able to assist?
7 years ago
No. The main problem in producing predictions is getting the data. That would likely take me a day’s work sorting it out and preparing predictions. Not going to happen.
7 years ago
Ok. I’ve managed to find out that they can’t under regulations release the predicted scores, only the tips.
7 years ago