NRL Predictions for Round 10
Team Ratings for Round 10
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 12.76 | 16.73 | -4.00 |
| Dragons | 6.97 | -0.45 | 7.40 |
| Panthers | 3.28 | 2.64 | 0.60 |
| Rabbitohs | 1.11 | -3.90 | 5.00 |
| Broncos | 0.87 | 4.78 | -3.90 |
| Raiders | 0.74 | 3.50 | -2.80 |
| Sharks | 0.42 | 2.20 | -1.80 |
| Roosters | -0.55 | 0.13 | -0.70 |
| Cowboys | -0.67 | 2.97 | -3.60 |
| Wests Tigers | -0.85 | -3.63 | 2.80 |
| Warriors | -1.39 | -6.97 | 5.60 |
| Eels | -2.04 | 1.51 | -3.60 |
| Bulldogs | -2.59 | -3.43 | 0.80 |
| Sea Eagles | -5.05 | -1.07 | -4.00 |
| Knights | -7.08 | -8.43 | 1.40 |
| Titans | -8.23 | -8.91 | 0.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 72 matches played, 39 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 54.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broncos vs. Bulldogs | May 03 | 22 – 20 | 7.20 | TRUE |
| 2 | Knights vs. Rabbitohs | May 04 | 18 – 36 | -3.10 | TRUE |
| 3 | Panthers vs. Cowboys | May 04 | 20 – 26 | 9.10 | FALSE |
| 4 | Raiders vs. Titans | May 05 | 32 – 18 | 11.60 | TRUE |
| 5 | Warriors vs. Wests Tigers | May 05 | 26 – 4 | 1.00 | TRUE |
| 6 | Sharks vs. Eels | May 05 | 22 – 20 | 6.00 | TRUE |
| 7 | Dragons vs. Storm | May 06 | 34 – 14 | -6.50 | FALSE |
| 8 | Roosters vs. Sea Eagles | May 06 | 22 – 20 | 8.40 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 10
Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys | May 10 | Wests Tigers | 2.80 |
| 2 | Knights vs. Panthers | May 11 | Panthers | -7.40 |
| 3 | Bulldogs vs. Eels | May 11 | Bulldogs | 2.50 |
| 4 | Warriors vs. Roosters | May 12 | Warriors | 3.70 |
| 5 | Storm vs. Titans | May 12 | Storm | 24.00 |
| 6 | Sea Eagles vs. Broncos | May 12 | Broncos | -2.90 |
| 7 | Rabbitohs vs. Dragons | May 13 | Dragons | -2.90 |
| 8 | Raiders vs. Sharks | May 13 | Raiders | 3.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »