May 1, 2018

NRL Predictions for Round 9

Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 14.61 16.73 -2.10
Dragons 5.12 -0.45 5.60
Panthers 4.33 2.64 1.70
Broncos 1.24 4.78 -3.50
Sharks 0.70 2.20 -1.50
Wests Tigers 0.61 -3.63 4.20
Raiders 0.57 3.50 -2.90
Rabbitohs 0.07 -3.90 4.00
Roosters -0.10 0.13 -0.20
Cowboys -1.72 2.97 -4.70
Eels -2.33 1.51 -3.80
Warriors -2.86 -6.97 4.10
Bulldogs -2.95 -3.43 0.50
Sea Eagles -5.50 -1.07 -4.40
Knights -6.04 -8.43 2.40
Titans -8.06 -8.91 0.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 64 matches played, 33 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 51.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Roosters Apr 25 24 – 8 7.00 TRUE
2 Storm vs. Warriors Apr 25 50 – 10 19.00 TRUE
3 Rabbitohs vs. Broncos Apr 26 20 – 24 2.80 FALSE
4 Sea Eagles vs. Knights Apr 27 12 – 18 5.10 FALSE
5 Panthers vs. Bulldogs Apr 27 22 – 14 10.70 TRUE
6 Titans vs. Sharks Apr 28 9 – 10 -6.50 TRUE
7 Cowboys vs. Raiders Apr 28 8 – 18 2.40 FALSE
8 Eels vs. Wests Tigers Apr 29 24 – 22 -0.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Bulldogs May 03 Broncos 7.20
2 Knights vs. Rabbitohs May 04 Rabbitohs -3.10
3 Panthers vs. Cowboys May 04 Panthers 9.10
4 Raiders vs. Titans May 05 Raiders 11.60
5 Warriors vs. Wests Tigers May 05 Warriors 1.00
6 Sharks vs. Eels May 05 Sharks 6.00
7 Dragons vs. Storm May 06 Storm -6.50
8 Roosters vs. Sea Eagles May 06 Roosters 8.40

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »