April 24, 2018

NRL Predictions for Round 8

Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 13.14 16.73 -3.60
Panthers 4.52 2.64 1.90
Dragons 4.48 -0.45 4.90
Sharks 1.08 2.20 -1.10
Wests Tigers 0.77 -3.63 4.40
Broncos 0.76 4.78 -4.00
Rabbitohs 0.54 -3.90 4.40
Roosters 0.53 0.13 0.40
Raiders -0.30 3.50 -3.80
Cowboys -0.85 2.97 -3.80
Warriors -1.39 -6.97 5.60
Eels -2.48 1.51 -4.00
Bulldogs -3.14 -3.43 0.30
Sea Eagles -4.72 -1.07 -3.70
Knights -6.82 -8.43 1.60
Titans -8.45 -8.91 0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 56 matches played, 29 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 51.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulldogs vs. Roosters Apr 19 0 – 6 0.20 FALSE
2 Warriors vs. Dragons Apr 20 20 – 12 -2.90 FALSE
3 Broncos vs. Storm Apr 20 20 – 34 -8.60 TRUE
4 Rabbitohs vs. Raiders Apr 21 42 – 22 1.20 TRUE
5 Wests Tigers vs. Knights Apr 21 20 – 22 12.60 FALSE
6 Cowboys vs. Titans Apr 21 26 – 14 10.40 TRUE
7 Eels vs. Sea Eagles Apr 22 44 – 10 0.60 TRUE
8 Sharks vs. Panthers Apr 22 26 – 22 -1.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Roosters Apr 25 Dragons 7.00
2 Storm vs. Warriors Apr 25 Storm 19.00
3 Rabbitohs vs. Broncos Apr 26 Rabbitohs 2.80
4 Sea Eagles vs. Knights Apr 27 Sea Eagles 5.10
5 Panthers vs. Bulldogs Apr 27 Panthers 10.70
6 Titans vs. Sharks Apr 28 Sharks -6.50
7 Cowboys vs. Raiders Apr 28 Cowboys 2.40
8 Eels vs. Wests Tigers Apr 29 Wests Tigers -0.30

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar
    mark scott

    Check the result of game 5, round 7

    7 years ago

    • avatar

      Thanks very much for noticing this problem Mark. I have updated the results after modifying my code.

      This season I have been obtaining the results of each round automatically from a website instead of copying them in by hand. The code I used for transferring the new results to my file of results was in error. Hopefully it is now fixed and working correctly.

      7 years ago