Aviva Premiership Predictions for Round 21
Team Ratings for Round 21
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saracens | 11.35 | 7.47 | 3.90 |
| Exeter Chiefs | 10.08 | 7.99 | 2.10 |
| Wasps | 5.98 | 5.89 | 0.10 |
| Leicester Tigers | 3.92 | 4.64 | -0.70 |
| Sale Sharks | 1.07 | -1.73 | 2.80 |
| Bath Rugby | 0.15 | 1.23 | -1.10 |
| Gloucester Rugby | 0.08 | 0.21 | -0.10 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -1.36 | -3.33 | 2.00 |
| Harlequins | -2.13 | 0.84 | -3.00 |
| Northampton Saints | -2.15 | 1.53 | -3.70 |
| Worcester Warriors | -5.67 | -4.37 | -1.30 |
| London Irish | -5.89 | -4.94 | -1.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 120 matches played, 83 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Sale Sharks | Apr 13 | 35 – 30 | -0.00 | FALSE |
| 2 | Gloucester Rugby vs. Harlequins | Apr 14 | 37 – 9 | 3.70 | TRUE |
| 3 | Leicester Tigers vs. Northampton Saints | Apr 14 | 21 – 27 | 10.20 | FALSE |
| 4 | Wasps vs. Worcester Warriors | Apr 14 | 30 – 15 | 14.60 | TRUE |
| 5 | London Irish vs. Exeter Chiefs | Apr 15 | 5 – 45 | -11.20 | TRUE |
| 6 | Saracens vs. Bath Rugby | Apr 15 | 41 – 6 | 12.80 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 21
Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leicester Tigers vs. Newcastle Falcons | Apr 27 | Leicester Tigers | 8.30 |
| 2 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Sale Sharks | Apr 28 | Exeter Chiefs | 12.00 |
| 3 | Gloucester Rugby vs. Bath Rugby | Apr 28 | Gloucester Rugby | 2.90 |
| 4 | Worcester Warriors vs. Harlequins | Apr 28 | Harlequins | -0.50 |
| 5 | London Irish vs. Saracens | Apr 29 | Saracens | -14.20 |
| 6 | Wasps vs. Northampton Saints | Apr 29 | Wasps | 11.10 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »