Aviva Premiership Predictions for Round 20
I have been meaning to add some additional competitions to my predictions. I have now implemented predictions for the Aviva Premiership, starting a bit late in the season, with only a few rounds to go.
Team Ratings for Round 20
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saracens | 10.63 | 7.47 | 3.20 |
| Exeter Chiefs | 9.19 | 7.99 | 1.20 |
| Wasps | 5.96 | 5.89 | 0.10 |
| Leicester Tigers | 4.48 | 4.64 | -0.20 |
| Sale Sharks | 1.37 | -1.73 | 3.10 |
| Bath Rugby | 0.86 | 1.23 | -0.40 |
| Gloucester Rugby | -0.69 | 0.21 | -0.90 |
| Harlequins | -1.36 | 0.84 | -2.20 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -1.66 | -3.33 | 1.70 |
| Northampton Saints | -2.70 | 1.53 | -4.20 |
| London Irish | -5.00 | -4.94 | -0.10 |
| Worcester Warriors | -5.65 | -4.37 | -1.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 114 matches played, 79 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sale Sharks vs. Wasps | Apr 07 | 28 – 27 | -1.90 | FALSE |
| 2 | Northampton Saints vs. Saracens | Apr 08 | 13 – 63 | -7.90 | TRUE |
| 3 | Bath Rugby vs. Leicester Tigers | Apr 07 | 19 – 34 | -2.70 | TRUE |
| 4 | Worcester Warriors vs. Newcastle Falcons | Apr 08 | 27 – 13 | -2.10 | FALSE |
| 5 | Harlequins vs. London Irish | Apr 08 | 5 – 35 | 8.90 | FALSE |
| 6 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Gloucester Rugby | Apr 09 | 46 – 10 | 11.30 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 20
Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Sale Sharks | Apr 13 | Sale Sharks | -0.00 |
| 2 | Gloucester Rugby vs. Harlequins | Apr 14 | Gloucester Rugby | 3.70 |
| 3 | Leicester Tigers vs. Northampton Saints | Apr 14 | Leicester Tigers | 10.20 |
| 4 | Wasps vs. Worcester Warriors | Apr 14 | Wasps | 14.60 |
| 5 | London Irish vs. Exeter Chiefs | Apr 15 | Exeter Chiefs | -11.20 |
| 6 | Saracens vs. Bath Rugby | Apr 15 | Saracens | 12.80 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »