NRL Predictions for Round 5
Team Ratings for Round 5
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 13.70 | 16.73 | -3.00 |
| Dragons | 4.66 | -0.45 | 5.10 |
| Panthers | 4.29 | 2.64 | 1.70 |
| Sharks | 3.48 | 2.20 | 1.30 |
| Cowboys | 1.42 | 2.97 | -1.50 |
| Broncos | 1.12 | 4.78 | -3.70 |
| Sea Eagles | 0.98 | -1.07 | 2.00 |
| Raiders | -0.23 | 3.50 | -3.70 |
| Roosters | -0.35 | 0.13 | -0.50 |
| Wests Tigers | -1.35 | -3.63 | 2.30 |
| Warriors | -1.94 | -6.97 | 5.00 |
| Rabbitohs | -2.50 | -3.90 | 1.40 |
| Bulldogs | -3.82 | -3.43 | -0.40 |
| Eels | -4.21 | 1.51 | -5.70 |
| Knights | -8.46 | -8.43 | -0.00 |
| Titans | -9.12 | -8.91 | -0.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 32 matches played, 17 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 53.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cowboys vs. Panthers | Mar 29 | 14 – 33 | 3.20 | FALSE |
| 2 | Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs | Mar 30 | 20 – 16 | 4.40 | TRUE |
| 3 | Sharks vs. Storm | Mar 30 | 14 – 4 | -10.00 | FALSE |
| 4 | Roosters vs. Warriors | Mar 31 | 6 – 30 | 11.00 | FALSE |
| 5 | Sea Eagles vs. Raiders | Mar 31 | 32 – 16 | 2.30 | TRUE |
| 6 | Dragons vs. Knights | Apr 01 | 30 – 12 | 15.80 | TRUE |
| 7 | Broncos vs. Titans | Apr 01 | 14 – 26 | 17.30 | FALSE |
| 8 | Wests Tigers vs. Eels | Apr 02 | 30 – 20 | 5.20 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 5
Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raiders vs. Bulldogs | Apr 05 | Raiders | 6.60 |
| 2 | Sharks vs. Roosters | Apr 06 | Sharks | 6.80 |
| 3 | Dragons vs. Rabbitohs | Apr 06 | Dragons | 10.20 |
| 4 | Wests Tigers vs. Storm | Apr 07 | Storm | -15.00 |
| 5 | Warriors vs. Cowboys | Apr 07 | Warriors | 1.10 |
| 6 | Knights vs. Broncos | Apr 07 | Broncos | -6.60 |
| 7 | Titans vs. Sea Eagles | Apr 08 | Sea Eagles | -7.10 |
| 8 | Eels vs. Panthers | Apr 08 | Panthers | -5.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
I have updated the predictions for West Tigers versus the Storm on Saturday. I had not realised it was being played at Mount Smart, not at the West Tigers’ home ground.
7 years ago