Posts from April 2018 (17)

April 24, 2018

Super 15 Predictions for Round 11

Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 16.03 16.18 -0.10
Crusaders 14.50 15.23 -0.70
Highlanders 11.42 10.29 1.10
Lions 10.20 13.81 -3.60
Chiefs 9.89 9.29 0.60
Bulls -0.46 -4.79 4.30
Stormers -0.48 1.48 -2.00
Sharks -0.59 1.02 -1.60
Blues -1.13 -0.24 -0.90
Waratahs -2.18 -3.92 1.70
Brumbies -2.54 1.75 -4.30
Jaguares -3.95 -4.64 0.70
Rebels -9.71 -14.96 5.30
Reds -9.99 -9.47 -0.50
Sunwolves -18.43 -18.42 -0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 61 matches played, 44 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Highlanders Apr 20 16 – 34 -7.80 TRUE
2 Waratahs vs. Lions Apr 20 0 – 29 -5.60 TRUE
3 Crusaders vs. Sunwolves Apr 21 33 – 11 39.00 TRUE
4 Reds vs. Chiefs Apr 21 12 – 36 -14.80 TRUE
5 Bulls vs. Rebels Apr 21 28 – 10 12.60 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Stormers Apr 21 24 – 17 2.90 TRUE
7 Brumbies vs. Jaguares Apr 22 20 – 25 6.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Sunwolves Apr 27 Hurricanes 38.50
2 Stormers vs. Rebels Apr 27 Stormers 13.20
3 Reds vs. Lions Apr 28 Lions -16.20
4 Blues vs. Jaguares Apr 28 Blues 6.80
5 Brumbies vs. Crusaders Apr 28 Crusaders -13.00
6 Bulls vs. Highlanders Apr 28 Highlanders -7.90

 

NRL Predictions for Round 8

Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 13.14 16.73 -3.60
Panthers 4.52 2.64 1.90
Dragons 4.48 -0.45 4.90
Sharks 1.08 2.20 -1.10
Wests Tigers 0.77 -3.63 4.40
Broncos 0.76 4.78 -4.00
Rabbitohs 0.54 -3.90 4.40
Roosters 0.53 0.13 0.40
Raiders -0.30 3.50 -3.80
Cowboys -0.85 2.97 -3.80
Warriors -1.39 -6.97 5.60
Eels -2.48 1.51 -4.00
Bulldogs -3.14 -3.43 0.30
Sea Eagles -4.72 -1.07 -3.70
Knights -6.82 -8.43 1.60
Titans -8.45 -8.91 0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 56 matches played, 29 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 51.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulldogs vs. Roosters Apr 19 0 – 6 0.20 FALSE
2 Warriors vs. Dragons Apr 20 20 – 12 -2.90 FALSE
3 Broncos vs. Storm Apr 20 20 – 34 -8.60 TRUE
4 Rabbitohs vs. Raiders Apr 21 42 – 22 1.20 TRUE
5 Wests Tigers vs. Knights Apr 21 20 – 22 12.60 FALSE
6 Cowboys vs. Titans Apr 21 26 – 14 10.40 TRUE
7 Eels vs. Sea Eagles Apr 22 44 – 10 0.60 TRUE
8 Sharks vs. Panthers Apr 22 26 – 22 -1.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Roosters Apr 25 Dragons 7.00
2 Storm vs. Warriors Apr 25 Storm 19.00
3 Rabbitohs vs. Broncos Apr 26 Rabbitohs 2.80
4 Sea Eagles vs. Knights Apr 27 Sea Eagles 5.10
5 Panthers vs. Bulldogs Apr 27 Panthers 10.70
6 Titans vs. Sharks Apr 28 Sharks -6.50
7 Cowboys vs. Raiders Apr 28 Cowboys 2.40
8 Eels vs. Wests Tigers Apr 29 Wests Tigers -0.30

 

April 23, 2018

Bogus poll headlines

From StuffOne in six Kiwi drivers use their phone at traffic lights, poll finds

This is a bogus poll from Neighbourly, the local bulletin board/discussion site owned by Stuff‘s publisher.  It’s based on “more than 3900” self-selected members of the site, without any attempt to make the figures representative. And that’s before you get to the issue of how honest people are being about their law breaking.

There’s almost no limit to how wrong bogus polls can be. Thanks to anchoring bias, there’s a good chance you’re better informed if you don’t see the results than if you do.

For a while, the NZ media had stopped writing stories and headlines based on bogus polls, but it’s been starting up again.

 

April 17, 2018

Super 15 Predictions for Round 10

Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 16.03 16.18 -0.10
Crusaders 15.52 15.23 0.30
Highlanders 10.81 10.29 0.50
Chiefs 9.33 9.29 0.00
Lions 8.80 13.81 -5.00
Stormers -0.23 1.48 -1.70
Blues -0.52 -0.24 -0.30
Waratahs -0.78 -3.92 3.10
Bulls -0.79 -4.79 4.00
Sharks -0.84 1.02 -1.90
Brumbies -1.83 1.75 -3.60
Jaguares -4.66 -4.64 -0.00
Rebels -9.38 -14.96 5.60
Reds -9.43 -9.47 0.00
Sunwolves -19.45 -18.42 -1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 54 matches played, 38 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Apr 13 25 – 13 10.00 TRUE
2 Sunwolves vs. Blues Apr 14 10 – 24 -15.00 TRUE
3 Rebels vs. Jaguares Apr 14 22 – 25 -0.40 TRUE
4 Highlanders vs. Brumbies Apr 14 43 – 17 15.40 TRUE
5 Waratahs vs. Reds Apr 14 37 – 16 10.90 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Bulls Apr 14 10 – 40 8.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Highlanders Apr 20 Highlanders -7.80
2 Waratahs vs. Lions Apr 20 Lions -5.60
3 Crusaders vs. Sunwolves Apr 21 Crusaders 39.00
4 Reds vs. Chiefs Apr 21 Chiefs -14.80
5 Bulls vs. Rebels Apr 21 Bulls 12.60
6 Sharks vs. Stormers Apr 21 Sharks 2.90
7 Brumbies vs. Jaguares Apr 22 Brumbies 6.80

 

NRL Predictions for Round 7

Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 12.77 16.73 -4.00
Dragons 5.25 -0.45 5.70
Panthers 4.88 2.64 2.20
Wests Tigers 1.80 -3.63 5.40
Broncos 1.14 4.78 -3.60
Raiders 1.02 3.50 -2.50
Sharks 0.72 2.20 -1.50
Roosters 0.10 0.13 -0.00
Rabbitohs -0.77 -3.90 3.10
Cowboys -0.97 2.97 -3.90
Warriors -2.15 -6.97 4.80
Sea Eagles -2.38 -1.07 -1.30
Bulldogs -2.71 -3.43 0.70
Eels -4.83 1.51 -6.30
Knights -7.84 -8.43 0.60
Titans -8.34 -8.91 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 25 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 52.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs Apr 12 14 – 26 6.50 FALSE
2 Storm vs. Knights Apr 13 40 – 14 23.20 TRUE
3 Dragons vs. Sharks Apr 13 40 – 20 5.50 TRUE
4 Warriors vs. Broncos Apr 14 18 – 27 2.90 FALSE
5 Cowboys vs. Bulldogs Apr 14 10 – 27 8.30 FALSE
6 Raiders vs. Eels Apr 14 18 – 2 7.70 TRUE
7 Panthers vs. Titans Apr 15 35 – 12 15.10 TRUE
8 Sea Eagles vs. Wests Tigers Apr 15 12 – 38 2.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulldogs vs. Roosters Apr 19 Bulldogs 0.20
2 Warriors vs. Dragons Apr 20 Dragons -2.90
3 Broncos vs. Storm Apr 20 Storm -8.60
4 Rabbitohs vs. Raiders Apr 21 Rabbitohs 1.20
5 Wests Tigers vs. Knights Apr 21 Wests Tigers 12.60
6 Cowboys vs. Titans Apr 21 Cowboys 10.40
7 Eels vs. Sea Eagles Apr 22 Eels 0.60
8 Sharks vs. Panthers Apr 22 Panthers -1.20

 

Aviva Premiership Predictions for Round 21

Team Ratings for Round 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 11.35 7.47 3.90
Exeter Chiefs 10.08 7.99 2.10
Wasps 5.98 5.89 0.10
Leicester Tigers 3.92 4.64 -0.70
Sale Sharks 1.07 -1.73 2.80
Bath Rugby 0.15 1.23 -1.10
Gloucester Rugby 0.08 0.21 -0.10
Newcastle Falcons -1.36 -3.33 2.00
Harlequins -2.13 0.84 -3.00
Northampton Saints -2.15 1.53 -3.70
Worcester Warriors -5.67 -4.37 -1.30
London Irish -5.89 -4.94 -1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 120 matches played, 83 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Sale Sharks Apr 13 35 – 30 -0.00 FALSE
2 Gloucester Rugby vs. Harlequins Apr 14 37 – 9 3.70 TRUE
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Northampton Saints Apr 14 21 – 27 10.20 FALSE
4 Wasps vs. Worcester Warriors Apr 14 30 – 15 14.60 TRUE
5 London Irish vs. Exeter Chiefs Apr 15 5 – 45 -11.20 TRUE
6 Saracens vs. Bath Rugby Apr 15 41 – 6 12.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 21

Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Leicester Tigers vs. Newcastle Falcons Apr 27 Leicester Tigers 8.30
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Sale Sharks Apr 28 Exeter Chiefs 12.00
3 Gloucester Rugby vs. Bath Rugby Apr 28 Gloucester Rugby 2.90
4 Worcester Warriors vs. Harlequins Apr 28 Harlequins -0.50
5 London Irish vs. Saracens Apr 29 Saracens -14.20
6 Wasps vs. Northampton Saints Apr 29 Wasps 11.10

 

April 13, 2018

Nibiru watch

The Herald website has just published another story about the imaginary and invisible planet Nibiru. That’s in addition to the nine from last year.

  • 18 Nov: Conspiracy theorists claim mysterious planet Nibiru will trigger apocalyptic earthquakes
  • 25 Sep: Nibiru: How the nonsense Planet X Armageddon and Nasa fake news theories spread globally
  • 30 Oct: The end of the world as we know it (again)
  • 23 Sep: How the nonsense Planet X Armageddon, Nasa fake news spread globally
  • 19 Sep: The world is about to end, if you believe this doomsday claim
  • 30 Aug: Claims new planet ‘about to destroy Earth’ and clues written on pyramids
  • 23 Sep: ‘Extremely violent times will come’: TV broadcast interrupted with end-of-world prediction
  • 9 Aug: Rogue planet about to smash into Earth, claim conspiracy theorists
  • 4 Jan: Conspiracy theorist claims mysterious planet Nibiru will smash into Earth and the world will end in October 2017

As you see, two of the stories ask how this nonsense theory spread globally.

One says, with a splendid lack of self-awareness

Despite absolutely no scientific evidence to back up the suggestions of a rogue planet getting rapidly closer to Earth, myths about Planet X continue to be perpetuated online, according to the Telegraph UK.

Indeed they do.

Briefly

An ‘insufficient data’ edition

  • Data quality matters: the high rate of death reported for women giving birth in Texas seems to have been partly a data entry error.  Researchers say Approximately half (50.3%) of obstetric-coded deaths showed no evidence of pregnancy within 42 days, and a large majority of these incorrectly indicated pregnancy at the time of death. That is, these were real deaths, but not related to pregnancy. The research paper also says “Texas’ current electronic death registration system displays pregnancy status options as a dropdown list. The “pregnant at the time of death” option is directly below the “not pregnant within the past year” option”  Via Ars Technica.
  • The new cancer drug pembrolizumab (Keytruda) is spectacularly effective across a wide range of tumours, but typically for a minority of patients. In the US, the FDA has approved its marketing for any tumour with a particular defect in DNA repair, but testing for that defect is not as reliable as one would like. The story in Nature News focuses on false negatives: people who would benefit but aren’t found by the test.  In New Zealand, false positives are also important: these new drugs would be more cost-effective and so more likely to be subsidised if you could avoid giving them to people who wouldn’t benefit.
  • There’s a new claim that kumara got to the Pacific Islands before people did, in the New York Timesbased on this research. Basically, the DNA from samples collected by the first European botanists in Polynesia has quite a lot of minor differences from modern sweet potatoes in the Americas, suggesting that its ancestors had been separated from the rest of the sweet potato lineage for over 100,000 years.  However, Lisa Matisoo-Smith and Michael Knapp from Otago argue that the samples are old enough — nearly 250 years — that the DNA will have been degraded and needs to be analysed with special obsessively-detailed protocols for old DNA.  That is, the evidence isn’t nearly strong enough to overturn the other reasons for thinking kumara were brought from South America by humans.
April 11, 2018

Aviva Premiership Predictions for Round 20

I have been meaning to add some additional competitions to my predictions. I have now implemented predictions for the Aviva Premiership, starting a bit late in the season, with only a few rounds to go.

Team Ratings for Round 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 10.63 7.47 3.20
Exeter Chiefs 9.19 7.99 1.20
Wasps 5.96 5.89 0.10
Leicester Tigers 4.48 4.64 -0.20
Sale Sharks 1.37 -1.73 3.10
Bath Rugby 0.86 1.23 -0.40
Gloucester Rugby -0.69 0.21 -0.90
Harlequins -1.36 0.84 -2.20
Newcastle Falcons -1.66 -3.33 1.70
Northampton Saints -2.70 1.53 -4.20
London Irish -5.00 -4.94 -0.10
Worcester Warriors -5.65 -4.37 -1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 114 matches played, 79 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sale Sharks vs. Wasps Apr 07 28 – 27 -1.90 FALSE
2 Northampton Saints vs. Saracens Apr 08 13 – 63 -7.90 TRUE
3 Bath Rugby vs. Leicester Tigers Apr 07 19 – 34 -2.70 TRUE
4 Worcester Warriors vs. Newcastle Falcons Apr 08 27 – 13 -2.10 FALSE
5 Harlequins vs. London Irish Apr 08 5 – 35 8.90 FALSE
6 Exeter Chiefs vs. Gloucester Rugby Apr 09 46 – 10 11.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Sale Sharks Apr 13 Sale Sharks -0.00
2 Gloucester Rugby vs. Harlequins Apr 14 Gloucester Rugby 3.70
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Northampton Saints Apr 14 Leicester Tigers 10.20
4 Wasps vs. Worcester Warriors Apr 14 Wasps 14.60
5 London Irish vs. Exeter Chiefs Apr 15 Exeter Chiefs -11.20
6 Saracens vs. Bath Rugby Apr 15 Saracens 12.80

 

April 10, 2018

Super 15 Predictions for Round 9

Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 15.91 16.18 -0.30
Crusaders 15.52 15.23 0.30
Highlanders 10.17 10.29 -0.10
Chiefs 9.45 9.29 0.20
Lions 8.80 13.81 -5.00
Sharks 1.44 1.02 0.40
Stormers -0.23 1.48 -1.70
Blues -0.46 -0.24 -0.20
Brumbies -1.19 1.75 -2.90
Waratahs -1.38 -3.92 2.50
Bulls -3.07 -4.79 1.70
Jaguares -4.82 -4.64 -0.20
Reds -8.83 -9.47 0.60
Rebels -9.23 -14.96 5.70
Sunwolves -19.51 -18.42 -1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 33 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Sharks Apr 06 38 – 37 20.80 TRUE
2 Sunwolves vs. Waratahs Apr 07 29 – 50 -13.20 TRUE
3 Chiefs vs. Blues Apr 07 21 – 19 15.00 TRUE
4 Brumbies vs. Reds Apr 07 45 – 21 9.40 TRUE
5 Lions vs. Stormers Apr 07 52 – 31 11.40 TRUE
6 Jaguares vs. Crusaders Apr 07 14 – 40 -15.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Apr 13 Hurricanes 10.00
2 Sunwolves vs. Blues Apr 14 Blues -15.00
3 Rebels vs. Jaguares Apr 14 Jaguares -0.40
4 Highlanders vs. Brumbies Apr 14 Highlanders 15.40
5 Waratahs vs. Reds Apr 14 Waratahs 10.90
6 Sharks vs. Bulls Apr 14 Sharks 8.00