March 27, 2018

Super 15 Predictions for Round 7

Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 16.51 16.18 0.30
Crusaders 14.63 15.23 -0.60
Highlanders 10.27 10.29 -0.00
Chiefs 10.13 9.29 0.80
Lions 8.45 13.81 -5.40
Stormers 1.02 1.48 -0.50
Blues 0.50 -0.24 0.70
Brumbies -1.36 1.75 -3.10
Sharks -1.49 1.02 -2.50
Waratahs -2.55 -3.92 1.40
Bulls -3.74 -4.79 1.10
Jaguares -4.16 -4.64 0.50
Reds -7.95 -9.47 1.50
Rebels -8.64 -14.96 6.30
Sunwolves -19.04 -18.42 -0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 36 matches played, 24 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Bulls Mar 23 33 – 14 22.80 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Sharks Mar 23 46 – 14 -7.90 FALSE
3 Sunwolves vs. Chiefs Mar 24 10 – 61 -21.70 TRUE
4 Hurricanes vs. Highlanders Mar 24 29 – 12 8.80 TRUE
5 Stormers vs. Reds Mar 24 25 – 19 13.90 TRUE
6 Jaguares vs. Lions Mar 24 49 – 35 -11.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Highlanders Mar 30 Chiefs 3.40
2 Rebels vs. Hurricanes Mar 30 Hurricanes -21.10
3 Blues vs. Sharks Mar 31 Blues 6.00
4 Brumbies vs. Waratahs Mar 31 Brumbies 4.70
5 Bulls vs. Stormers Mar 31 Stormers -1.30
6 Lions vs. Crusaders Apr 01 Crusaders -2.20

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »