March 27, 2018

NRL Predictions for Round 4

Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 15.10 16.73 -1.60
Dragons 4.51 -0.45 5.00
Broncos 3.17 4.78 -1.60
Cowboys 2.98 2.97 0.00
Panthers 2.73 2.64 0.10
Roosters 2.10 0.13 2.00
Sharks 2.08 2.20 -0.10
Raiders 0.73 3.50 -2.80
Sea Eagles 0.02 -1.07 1.10
Wests Tigers -1.68 -3.63 2.00
Rabbitohs -2.47 -3.90 1.40
Bulldogs -3.84 -3.43 -0.40
Eels -3.87 1.51 -5.40
Warriors -4.39 -6.97 2.60
Knights -8.30 -8.43 0.10
Titans -11.17 -8.91 -2.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 13 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 54.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Storm vs. Cowboys Mar 22 30 – 14 15.00 TRUE
2 Bulldogs vs. Panthers Mar 23 20 – 18 -4.50 FALSE
3 Wests Tigers vs. Broncos Mar 23 7 – 9 -1.80 TRUE
4 Raiders vs. Warriors Mar 24 19 – 20 11.40 FALSE
5 Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles Mar 24 34 – 6 -4.00 FALSE
6 Eels vs. Sharks Mar 24 4 – 14 -1.80 TRUE
7 Titans vs. Dragons Mar 25 8 – 54 -7.30 TRUE
8 Roosters vs. Knights Mar 25 38 – 8 10.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cowboys vs. Panthers Mar 29 Cowboys 3.20
2 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Mar 30 Rabbitohs 4.40
3 Sharks vs. Storm Mar 30 Storm -10.00
4 Roosters vs. Warriors Mar 31 Roosters 11.00
5 Sea Eagles vs. Raiders Mar 31 Sea Eagles 2.30
6 Dragons vs. Knights Apr 01 Dragons 15.80
7 Broncos vs. Titans Apr 01 Broncos 17.30
8 Wests Tigers vs. Eels Apr 02 Wests Tigers 5.20

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »