Super 15 Predictions for Round 6
Team Ratings for Round 6
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hurricanes | 16.02 | 16.18 | -0.20 |
| Crusaders | 14.86 | 15.23 | -0.40 |
| Highlanders | 10.76 | 10.29 | 0.50 |
| Lions | 9.99 | 13.81 | -3.80 |
| Chiefs | 8.37 | 9.29 | -0.90 |
| Stormers | 1.50 | 1.48 | 0.00 |
| Sharks | 0.91 | 1.02 | -0.10 |
| Blues | 0.50 | -0.24 | 0.70 |
| Brumbies | -1.36 | 1.75 | -3.10 |
| Waratahs | -2.55 | -3.92 | 1.40 |
| Bulls | -3.98 | -4.79 | 0.80 |
| Jaguares | -5.70 | -4.64 | -1.10 |
| Reds | -8.43 | -9.47 | 1.00 |
| Rebels | -11.03 | -14.96 | 3.90 |
| Sunwolves | -17.28 | -18.42 | 1.10 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 30 matches played, 20 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chiefs vs. Bulls | Mar 16 | 41 – 28 | 16.80 | TRUE |
| 2 | Highlanders vs. Crusaders | Mar 17 | 25 – 17 | -1.80 | FALSE |
| 3 | Brumbies vs. Sharks | Mar 17 | 24 – 17 | 1.00 | TRUE |
| 4 | Stormers vs. Blues | Mar 17 | 37 – 20 | 3.40 | TRUE |
| 5 | Lions vs. Sunwolves | Mar 17 | 40 – 38 | 35.30 | TRUE |
| 6 | Jaguares vs. Reds | Mar 17 | 7 – 18 | 9.10 | FALSE |
| 7 | Waratahs vs. Rebels | Mar 18 | 51 – 27 | 10.30 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 6
Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crusaders vs. Bulls | Mar 23 | Crusaders | 22.80 |
| 2 | Rebels vs. Sharks | Mar 23 | Sharks | -7.90 |
| 3 | Sunwolves vs. Chiefs | Mar 24 | Chiefs | -21.70 |
| 4 | Hurricanes vs. Highlanders | Mar 24 | Hurricanes | 8.80 |
| 5 | Stormers vs. Reds | Mar 24 | Stormers | 13.90 |
| 6 | Jaguares vs. Lions | Mar 24 | Lions | -11.70 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Looks like you’ve combined round 7 and round 6? :)
7 years ago
Yes, thanks for noticing.
A mistake in processing the fixture data scraped from the Super Rugby website because there was some extra text after the words “Round 7” which meant I didn’t pick off the round number, just kept the previous round number.
Should be ok now. No difference to the round 6 predictions, just a bit of extra noise.
7 years ago