March 20, 2018

Super 15 Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 16.02 16.18 -0.20
Crusaders 14.86 15.23 -0.40
Highlanders 10.76 10.29 0.50
Lions 9.99 13.81 -3.80
Chiefs 8.37 9.29 -0.90
Stormers 1.50 1.48 0.00
Sharks 0.91 1.02 -0.10
Blues 0.50 -0.24 0.70
Brumbies -1.36 1.75 -3.10
Waratahs -2.55 -3.92 1.40
Bulls -3.98 -4.79 0.80
Jaguares -5.70 -4.64 -1.10
Reds -8.43 -9.47 1.00
Rebels -11.03 -14.96 3.90
Sunwolves -17.28 -18.42 1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 30 matches played, 20 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Bulls Mar 16 41 – 28 16.80 TRUE
2 Highlanders vs. Crusaders Mar 17 25 – 17 -1.80 FALSE
3 Brumbies vs. Sharks Mar 17 24 – 17 1.00 TRUE
4 Stormers vs. Blues Mar 17 37 – 20 3.40 TRUE
5 Lions vs. Sunwolves Mar 17 40 – 38 35.30 TRUE
6 Jaguares vs. Reds Mar 17 7 – 18 9.10 FALSE
7 Waratahs vs. Rebels Mar 18 51 – 27 10.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Bulls Mar 23 Crusaders 22.80
2 Rebels vs. Sharks Mar 23 Sharks -7.90
3 Sunwolves vs. Chiefs Mar 24 Chiefs -21.70
4 Hurricanes vs. Highlanders Mar 24 Hurricanes 8.80
5 Stormers vs. Reds Mar 24 Stormers 13.90
6 Jaguares vs. Lions Mar 24 Lions -11.70

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar
    Christopher Pearce

    Looks like you’ve combined round 7 and round 6? :)

    7 years ago

    • avatar
      David Scott

      Yes, thanks for noticing.

      A mistake in processing the fixture data scraped from the Super Rugby website because there was some extra text after the words “Round 7” which meant I didn’t pick off the round number, just kept the previous round number.

      Should be ok now. No difference to the round 6 predictions, just a bit of extra noise.

      7 years ago