March 20, 2018

NRL Predictions for Round

Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 15.03 16.73 -1.70
Panthers 3.19 2.64 0.60
Broncos 3.16 4.78 -1.60
Cowboys 3.05 2.97 0.10
Sea Eagles 2.26 -1.07 3.30
Dragons 1.80 -0.45 2.20
Raiders 1.60 3.50 -1.90
Sharks 1.50 2.20 -0.70
Roosters 0.75 0.13 0.60
Wests Tigers -1.67 -3.63 2.00
Eels -3.30 1.51 -4.80
Bulldogs -4.30 -3.43 -0.90
Rabbitohs -4.71 -3.90 -0.80
Warriors -5.25 -6.97 1.70
Knights -6.95 -8.43 1.50
Titans -8.46 -8.91 0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 8 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Dragons Mar 15 16 – 20 3.80 FALSE
2 Roosters vs. Bulldogs Mar 16 30 – 12 6.40 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Cowboys Mar 16 24 – 20 3.00 TRUE
4 Warriors vs. Titans Mar 17 20 – 8 7.00 TRUE
5 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Mar 17 18 – 14 12.00 TRUE
6 Storm vs. Wests Tigers Mar 17 8 – 10 23.20 FALSE
7 Sea Eagles vs. Eels Mar 18 54 – 0 1.20 TRUE
8 Raiders vs. Knights Mar 18 28 – 30 13.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Cowboys Mar 22 Storm 15.00
2 Bulldogs vs. Panthers Mar 23 Panthers -4.50
3 Wests Tigers vs. Broncos Mar 23 Broncos -1.80
4 Raiders vs. Warriors Mar 24 Raiders 11.40
5 Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles Mar 24 Sea Eagles -4.00
6 Eels vs. Sharks Mar 24 Sharks -1.80
7 Titans vs. Dragons Mar 25 Dragons -7.30
8 Roosters vs. Knights Mar 25 Roosters 10.70

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »