Super 15 Predictions for Round 4
Team Ratings for Round 4
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crusaders | 15.86 | 15.23 | 0.60 |
| Hurricanes | 15.61 | 16.18 | -0.60 |
| Lions | 13.19 | 13.81 | -0.60 |
| Highlanders | 9.87 | 10.29 | -0.40 |
| Chiefs | 8.60 | 9.29 | -0.70 |
| Sharks | 1.03 | 1.02 | 0.00 |
| Stormers | 0.99 | 1.48 | -0.50 |
| Brumbies | 0.19 | 1.75 | -1.60 |
| Blues | 0.11 | -0.24 | 0.30 |
| Waratahs | -2.88 | -3.92 | 1.00 |
| Bulls | -3.70 | -4.79 | 1.10 |
| Jaguares | -4.98 | -4.64 | -0.30 |
| Reds | -10.14 | -9.47 | -0.70 |
| Rebels | -12.12 | -14.96 | 2.80 |
| Sunwolves | -19.04 | -18.42 | -0.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 16 matches played, 11 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blues vs. Chiefs | Mar 02 | 21 – 27 | -4.80 | TRUE |
| 2 | Reds vs. Brumbies | Mar 02 | 18 – 10 | -8.90 | FALSE |
| 3 | Crusaders vs. Stormers | Mar 03 | 45 – 28 | 19.10 | TRUE |
| 4 | Sunwolves vs. Rebels | Mar 03 | 17 – 37 | -0.60 | TRUE |
| 5 | Sharks vs. Waratahs | Mar 03 | 24 – 24 | 9.00 | FALSE |
| 6 | Bulls vs. Lions | Mar 03 | 35 – 49 | -13.30 | TRUE |
| 7 | Jaguares vs. Hurricanes | Mar 03 | 9 – 34 | -15.40 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 4
Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Highlanders vs. Stormers | Mar 09 | Highlanders | 12.90 |
| 2 | Rebels vs. Brumbies | Mar 09 | Brumbies | -8.80 |
| 3 | Hurricanes vs. Crusaders | Mar 10 | Hurricanes | 3.30 |
| 4 | Reds vs. Bulls | Mar 10 | Bulls | -2.40 |
| 5 | Sharks vs. Sunwolves | Mar 10 | Sharks | 24.10 |
| 6 | Lions vs. Blues | Mar 10 | Lions | 17.10 |
| 7 | Jaguares vs. Waratahs | Mar 10 | Jaguares | 1.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »