October 17, 2017

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals

Team Ratings for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 15.56 14.78 0.80
Wellington 11.41 -1.62 13.00
Taranaki 7.81 7.04 0.80
North Harbour 6.27 -1.27 7.50
Tasman 2.69 9.54 -6.90
Counties Manukau 2.02 5.70 -3.70
Otago 1.61 -0.34 2.00
Auckland -0.33 6.11 -6.40
Bay of Plenty -1.50 -3.98 2.50
Waikato -3.17 -0.26 -2.90
Northland -3.19 -12.37 9.20
Manawatu -4.54 -3.59 -1.00
Hawke’s Bay -13.26 -5.85 -7.40
Southland -23.99 -16.50 -7.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 70 matches played, 48 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Taranaki vs. Manawatu Oct 11 46 – 25 17.90 TRUE
2 Wellington vs. Northland Oct 12 36 – 18 18.70 TRUE
3 Auckland vs. Canterbury Oct 13 27 – 32 -13.40 TRUE
4 Bay of Plenty vs. Waikato Oct 14 36 – 32 6.00 TRUE
5 Otago vs. Southland Oct 14 43 – 19 30.80 TRUE
6 Counties Manukau vs. Tasman Oct 14 52 – 30 -0.80 FALSE
7 North Harbour vs. Taranaki Oct 15 64 – 33 -3.50 FALSE
8 Hawke’s Bay vs. Manawatu Oct 15 36 – 31 -7.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals

Here are the predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wellington vs. Northland Oct 20 Wellington 18.60
2 Bay of Plenty vs. Otago Oct 21 Bay of Plenty 0.90
3 Canterbury vs. North Harbour Oct 21 Canterbury 13.30
4 Taranaki vs. Tasman Oct 21 Taranaki 9.10

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »