October 3, 2017

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 13

Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 5.89 2.15 3.70
Western Province 3.98 3.30 0.70
Lions 2.44 7.41 -5.00
Cheetahs 1.59 4.33 -2.70
Blue Bulls 0.01 2.32 -2.30
Pumas -6.51 -10.63 4.10
Griquas -10.15 -11.62 1.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 36 matches played, 24 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Lions Sep 29 24 – 10 6.80 TRUE
2 Griquas vs. Cheetahs Sep 30 59 – 24 -9.50 FALSE
3 Blue Bulls vs. Western Province Oct 01 45 – 46 0.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

The Cheetahs have been playing in the Pro 14 competition and fielding a second or third team in the Currie Cup. They have another such game this weekend causing problems with prediction. After 4 such games a quick estimate is that they might score 27 points less than if they were fielding their best team, but losses so far will have dropped their rating a couple of points already. I would guess that a difference of 25 points might be appropriate, so instead of the points difference being 6.1 below, it might be -19 and a win to the Blue Bulls.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cheetahs vs. Blue Bulls Oct 06 Cheetahs 6.10
2 Griquas vs. Pumas Oct 07 Griquas 0.90
3 Lions vs. Western Province Oct 08 Lions 3.00

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »