Currie Cup Predictions for Round 12
Team Ratings for Round 12
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 5.31 | 2.15 | 3.20 |
| Western Province | 3.84 | 3.30 | 0.50 |
| Lions | 3.02 | 7.41 | -4.40 |
| Cheetahs | 2.73 | 4.33 | -1.60 |
| Blue Bulls | 0.16 | 2.32 | -2.20 |
| Pumas | -6.51 | -10.63 | 4.10 |
| Griquas | -11.29 | -11.62 | 0.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 33 matches played, 23 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sharks vs. Blue Bulls | Sep 23 | 18 – 5 | 9.00 | TRUE |
| 2 | Western Province vs. Griquas | Sep 23 | 55 – 27 | 18.90 | TRUE |
| 3 | Cheetahs vs. Pumas | Sep 23 | 33 – 32 | 14.70 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 12
Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
The Cheetahs have been playing in the Pro 14 competition and fielding a second or third team in the Currie Cup. With little experience so far it is difficult to estimate the difference in expected points this might make. After 3 such games a quick estimate is that they might score 23 points less than if they were fielding their best team, but losses so far will have dropped their rating a couple of points already. I would guess that a difference of 21 points might be appropriate, so instead of the points difference being -9.50 below, it might be 11.5 and a win to Griquas.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sharks vs. Lions | Sep 29 | Sharks | 6.80 |
| 2 | Griquas vs. Cheetahs | Sep 30 | Cheetahs | -9.50 |
| 3 | Blue Bulls vs. Western Province | Oct 01 | Blue Bulls | 0.80 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »