September 19, 2017

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 11

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Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 4.99 2.15 2.80
Western Province 3.46 3.30 0.20
Cheetahs 3.23 4.33 -1.10
Lions 3.02 7.41 -4.40
Blue Bulls 0.47 2.32 -1.90
Pumas -7.01 -10.63 3.60
Griquas -10.91 -11.62 0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 30 matches played, 20 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Pumas vs. Western Province Sep 15 22 – 12 -7.10 FALSE
2 Griquas vs. Sharks Sep 16 22 – 40 -10.10 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Blue Bulls Sep 16 36 – 33 7.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Blue Bulls Sep 23 Sharks 9.00
2 Western Province vs. Griquas Sep 23 Western Province 18.90
3 Cheetahs vs. Pumas Sep 23 Cheetahs 14.70

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar
    Geoff Chandler

    Hi Dave,

    The Pumas will win the game against the Cheetahs as its there 3rd team the main cheetahs team is playing in the Guinness Pro 14 tournament.

    Thanks
    Geoff

    7 years ago

    • avatar
      David Scott

      Thanks. I have now had a look at the Pro14 schedule and I see the Cheetahs are playing in the Pro14 every week except week 14 of the Currie Cup competition. With little history it is hard to know how to adjust for this. My initial thought was maybe the penalty I give for a new team in a competition, namely a ranking of -10. The first two games where this has happened though the loss by the Cheetahs averaged more than 30 points worse than I predicted. So, a rough guess might be that fielding their third team might be a penalty of 30 points, which in this case would indeed still suggest a loss to the Pumas. I will monitor this further and try to incorporate it into my predictions.

      7 years ago