NRL Predictions for Finals Week 1
Team Ratings for Finals Week 1
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 15.68 | 8.49 | 7.20 |
| Broncos | 6.96 | 4.36 | 2.60 |
| Raiders | 4.07 | 9.94 | -5.90 |
| Sharks | 2.98 | 5.84 | -2.90 |
| Cowboys | 2.25 | 6.90 | -4.70 |
| Panthers | 2.00 | 6.08 | -4.10 |
| Eels | 1.26 | -0.81 | 2.10 |
| Roosters | 0.93 | -1.17 | 2.10 |
| Sea Eagles | -0.33 | -2.98 | 2.60 |
| Dragons | -0.94 | -7.74 | 6.80 |
| Bulldogs | -3.55 | -1.34 | -2.20 |
| Wests Tigers | -3.72 | -3.89 | 0.20 |
| Rabbitohs | -3.84 | -1.82 | -2.00 |
| Warriors | -7.23 | -6.02 | -1.20 |
| Titans | -9.03 | -0.98 | -8.10 |
| Knights | -9.54 | -16.94 | 7.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 192 matches played, 116 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cowboys vs. Broncos | Aug 31 | 10 – 20 | 0.50 | FALSE |
| 2 | Eels vs. Rabbitohs | Sep 01 | 22 – 16 | 9.20 | TRUE |
| 3 | Roosters vs. Titans | Sep 02 | 20 – 16 | 15.20 | TRUE |
| 4 | Sea Eagles vs. Panthers | Sep 02 | 28 – 12 | -1.60 | FALSE |
| 5 | Storm vs. Raiders | Sep 02 | 32 – 6 | 13.10 | TRUE |
| 6 | Knights vs. Sharks | Sep 03 | 0 – 18 | -7.30 | TRUE |
| 7 | Dragons vs. Bulldogs | Sep 03 | 20 – 26 | 8.40 | FALSE |
| 8 | Wests Tigers vs. Warriors | Sep 03 | 28 – 16 | 6.60 | TRUE |
Predictions for Finals Week 1
Here are the predictions for Finals Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roosters vs. Broncos | Sep 08 | Broncos | -2.50 |
| 2 | Storm vs. Eels | Sep 09 | Storm | 17.90 |
| 3 | Sea Eagles vs. Panthers | Sep 09 | Panthers | -2.30 |
| 4 | Sharks vs. Cowboys | Sep 10 | Sharks | 4.20 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
You have the Titans playing in the forth game, according to NRL.com that game is between CRO and NQL
7 years ago
Thanks Mark. Yes, my mistake in entering the game details. I even noted and was surprised by seeing the Titans playing in the finals when I published the predictions but foolishly thought nothing more of it. Cowboys make much more sense, and the margin is quite different.
Should be correct now
7 years ago