NRL Predictions for Round 23
Team Ratings for Round 23
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Storm | 10.95 | 8.49 | 2.50 |
Broncos | 7.45 | 4.36 | 3.10 |
Raiders | 4.68 | 9.94 | -5.30 |
Cowboys | 4.41 | 6.90 | -2.50 |
Panthers | 2.90 | 6.08 | -3.20 |
Sharks | 2.51 | 5.84 | -3.30 |
Eels | 1.74 | -0.81 | 2.50 |
Roosters | 0.86 | -1.17 | 2.00 |
Sea Eagles | 0.08 | -2.98 | 3.10 |
Dragons | -2.02 | -7.74 | 5.70 |
Rabbitohs | -2.29 | -1.82 | -0.50 |
Wests Tigers | -4.63 | -3.89 | -0.70 |
Warriors | -4.87 | -6.02 | 1.10 |
Bulldogs | -6.48 | -1.34 | -5.10 |
Titans | -7.60 | -0.98 | -6.60 |
Knights | -9.75 | -16.94 | 7.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 160 matches played, 96 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Bulldogs vs. Eels | Aug 03 | 4 – 20 | -2.60 | TRUE |
2 | Dragons vs. Rabbitohs | Aug 04 | 24 – 26 | 4.90 | FALSE |
3 | Cowboys vs. Storm | Aug 04 | 8 – 26 | -0.30 | TRUE |
4 | Knights vs. Warriors | Aug 05 | 26 – 10 | -4.00 | FALSE |
5 | Titans vs. Broncos | Aug 05 | 0 – 54 | -4.20 | TRUE |
6 | Sharks vs. Raiders | Aug 05 | 12 – 30 | 4.90 | FALSE |
7 | Sea Eagles vs. Roosters | Aug 06 | 36 – 18 | -0.10 | FALSE |
8 | Panthers vs. Wests Tigers | Aug 06 | 28 – 14 | 10.40 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 23
Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs | Aug 10 | Rabbitohs | 7.70 |
2 | Eels vs. Knights | Aug 11 | Eels | 15.00 |
3 | Broncos vs. Sharks | Aug 11 | Broncos | 8.40 |
4 | Dragons vs. Titans | Aug 12 | Dragons | 9.10 |
5 | Storm vs. Roosters | Aug 12 | Storm | 13.60 |
6 | Panthers vs. Cowboys | Aug 12 | Panthers | 2.00 |
7 | Warriors vs. Raiders | Aug 13 | Raiders | -5.50 |
8 | Wests Tigers vs. Sea Eagles | Aug 13 | Sea Eagles | -1.20 |