August 29, 2017

NRL Predictions for Round 26

Team Ratings for Round 26

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 14.65 8.49 6.20
Broncos 6.13 4.36 1.80
Raiders 5.10 9.94 -4.80
Panthers 3.37 6.08 -2.70
Cowboys 3.08 6.90 -3.80
Sharks 2.13 5.84 -3.70
Roosters 1.83 -1.17 3.00
Eels 1.54 -0.81 2.30
Dragons 0.20 -7.74 7.90
Sea Eagles -1.70 -2.98 1.30
Rabbitohs -4.12 -1.82 -2.30
Wests Tigers -4.17 -3.89 -0.30
Bulldogs -4.69 -1.34 -3.40
Warriors -6.79 -6.02 -0.80
Knights -8.68 -16.94 8.30
Titans -9.92 -0.98 -8.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 184 matches played, 111 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Eels Aug 24 34 – 52 12.70 FALSE
2 Raiders vs. Knights Aug 25 46 – 28 17.10 TRUE
3 Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys Aug 25 14 – 22 -2.90 TRUE
4 Titans vs. Bulldogs Aug 26 14 – 26 0.20 FALSE
5 Storm vs. Rabbitohs Aug 26 64 – 6 16.00 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Roosters Aug 26 14 – 16 4.90 FALSE
7 Warriors vs. Sea Eagles Aug 27 21 – 22 -1.10 TRUE
8 Panthers vs. Dragons Aug 27 14 – 16 8.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 26

Here are the predictions for Round 26. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cowboys vs. Broncos Aug 31 Cowboys 0.50
2 Eels vs. Rabbitohs Sep 01 Eels 9.20
3 Roosters vs. Titans Sep 02 Roosters 15.20
4 Sea Eagles vs. Panthers Sep 02 Panthers -1.60
5 Storm vs. Raiders Sep 02 Storm 13.10
6 Knights vs. Sharks Sep 03 Sharks -7.30
7 Dragons vs. Bulldogs Sep 03 Dragons 8.40
8 Wests Tigers vs. Warriors Sep 03 Wests Tigers 6.60

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »